Архив метки: Putin

Times of impossible and inevitable wars

автор: ValeryMorozov Опубликовано 2024/04/25

There are very few state leaders and politicians who view what is happening in the world not as some series of events and emerging problems, but as one single process. If the interconnections of events lie on the surface and cannot be ignored, most of politicians react according to the principle:

If you face new problem — find the enemy — save yourself, destroy your enemy — portray yourself as victim or winner, or better, as both.

There are no attempts to understand reasons of events and problems, and that is one of the main reasons why military conflicts are emerging and multiplying in the world, and major powers struggle to take conflicts under control, but unable to resolve them.

Everyone feels that the world has entered new era, but behave, think and act as if no significant changes have taken place in the world over the past four hundred years.
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The Ukrainian Trap, part 2

автор: ValeryMorozov Опубликовано 2024/04/07

                                            When people need war

The Ukrainian trap slammed shut for Russia in 2014, when Vladimir Putin, using the coup in Kyiv and the split into Ukrainian and pro-Russian regions caused by the Maidan, ensured the transition of Crimea to Russia and turned the Donbass into springboard for pro-Russian forces.

From the Russian point of view, this was historic achievement for Vladimir Putin. However, the trap set for Russia has slammed shut. The Maidan in Kyiv finally turned Ukraine away from Russia, towards the West. The fate of Russia and Ukraine as opposing sides in inevitable armed conflict was determined.

There was only one path of transformation left for Ukraine, and that was the development into alternative civilization to the Russian world, into civilization based on rigid nationalism, in contrast to Russian civilization based on two basic principles: territorial-communal and social class-inclusivity that I call “the principle of the Russian doll”.
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The Ukrainian Trap, part 1

автор: ValeryMorozov Опубликовано 2024/03/29

Wars rarely develop, much less end, the way wars had been planned by those who started them. More often than not, the results of wars had little in common with intentions of their planners, and often the results and consequences of wars turned out to be completely opposite to intentions of war participants.

Moreover, with the growing role of civilizations in the international relations, wars become not only more unpredictable, but tun into traps for those who start them or get involved in them.

Politicians and officials start wars between states, out of state interests, but these wars quickly turn into conflicts between civilizations, and finding ways out of intercivilizational wars within the framework of interstate relations turns out to be not only extremely difficult, but sometimes impossible.

Those wars turn out to be traps for states, their political leaders and peoples.
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The Military — Political crisis in Russia and the PMC «Wagner», part 1

автор: ValeryMorozov Опубликовано 2023/07/07

The political crises are shaking France and hang over Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, the USA… These crises are initiated by economic and energy problems, inflation and rapture of the world financial system, by falling living standards of the population and are pushed by inter-civilizational conflicts between the local population and millions of migrants. Before the “Prigozhin rebellion”, it seemed that unlike the West, Russia was able to avoid the crisis, despite the war in Ukraine and sanctions of the West.

After economic indicators fall in the first months of the war in Ukraine due to Western sanctions and move out of European and American corporations, the Russian economy began to develop at the fastest pace in the last fifteen years. Despite the fall in oil and gas revenues that led to depreciation of the ruble, Russian GDP from May 2022 to May 2023 grew by 5.4%, manufacturing production by 12.8%, and the inflation did not exceed 4%.
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Russian Army and U-turn in Putin’s policy, part 2

автор: ValeryMorozov Опубликовано 2023/06/14

The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will determine the course of the conflict in Ukraine for this year, and possibly the fate of the war. Nevertheless, the capture of Bakhmut by the Russian PMC Wagner remains one of the main events of 2023.

At this point it is important to analyze the battle in Bakhmut, including the so-called the “Prigozhin rebellion”, and the first results of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine not as separate events, but in their interconnectedness. That will allow us to more deeply understand the processes that are taking place at the front, as well as within the Russian political elites and its armed forces, and between Russia and the West outside of Ukraine.

Moreover, those events signal that there is a force rapidly growing and increasing its influence on the international arena that can become important factor and instrument in the conflict between the West and Russia.
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