(From the series “Trump’s America and the New World Order”, part 9)
After Trump’s telephone conversations with Putin and Zelensky and subsequent negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the outlines of the world model that the White House and the Kremlin are building, are becoming more clear, as well as Europe’s place in this model, and the future of Ukraine.
However, it is difficult to draw conclusions based only on official reports from Washington, Moscow, or from Zelensky’s statements. As Vladimir Putin said, responding to a request to confirm information provided by his press-secretary Peskov:
– Don’t listen to him… That’s his job…
Information services tell the public only what the authorities want people to know, and hide what happens behind closed doors, in the real world of politics that should be kept secret. And that is exactly what Putin said.
However, whether the White House and the Kremlin want it or not, there are signals and signs that reflect what is happening behind the closed doors and political facades. By monitoring and analysing these signals, we can build the main elements of the world model that Trump and Putin are creating, in particular in Ukraine, that after 34 years of independence has found itself in the role of a test subject.
It should be taken into account that after the proxy war between the USA and Russia ended, Trump and Putin conduct politics as rivals, who are pushed by their national interests to become partners. At the same time, the leaders of Russia and Ukraine have created a relationship of irreconcilable enemies, and it will be extremely difficult, even impossible, given the mentality of Russians and Ukrainians, to change this. More, the hostility is rapidly growing also between Trump and Zelensky.
Washington is now acting as the referee in the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, and these negotiations push Ukraine towards a transformation of its state and social systems.
So, let me highlight those signs that allow to follow the scarlet thread and foresee the upcoming events and to define the model of state that is being built in Ukraine.
- In the official reports of the Kremlin and the White House on the telephone conversation on 18 April, 2025, between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Ukraine was mentioned only as one of the topics of the negotiations. There was no mention of Ukraine as a participant in the negotiation process, or of its interests, or demands. Secondly, there was no mention of Europe.
- Discussion of the war and the future of Ukraine took up less than 30% of the time in the phone call between Trump and Putin. The focus was on the development of US-Russian relations, as well as a model that would allow the US and Russia jointly, with the involvement, if necessary, of other world powers, to manage, solve problems and interact in the world. Ukraine, the Middle East and Iran were discussed as areas of interaction.
- On March 27, speaking to the Russian Northern Fleet command in Murmansk, Putin proposed discussing “the introduction of temporary governance in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN and a number of countries in order to hold elections there.” Among the participants in the group for governing Ukraine during the elections, Putin named the United States “together with European countries, of course, with our partners and friends.”
- During the negotiations in Saudi Arabia, special zones were designated in Ukraine that should not be damaged during the ongoing military actions. These are primarily Ukrainian nuclear power plants, the main elements of the energy systems and port facilities necessary for the export of agricultural products, mineral fertilizers, ammonia, metals, not only from Ukraine, but also from Russia, including the former territories of Ukraine that are under Russian control.
- As a first step, Trump and Putin agreed to stop attacks on energy systems. Zelensky joined this agreement.
- Despite his agreement to Trump’s proposal on18 March, Zelensky declared that the Agreement would come into force only after the White House makes official statement. As a result, before the US statement was published on 25 March, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out strikes on Russian territory against few energy facilities, including two facilities of particular importance for oil and gas supplies to Europe: the Sudzha gas station that supplies Russian gas from Russia through Ukraine to Europe; and the oil depot in Krasnodar Krai that provides transshipment of oil produced by British and American corporations in Kazakhstan, from railway tanks to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system. As a result of this attack, oil supplies from Kazakhstan to Europe were stopped, and British and American companies are suffering multi-million-dollar losses.
The Russian Aerospace Forces didn’t attack the Ukrainian energy facilities, but continued strikes against other facilities in the main cities of Ukraine, including Kyiv and Odessa, as well as in combat zones.
After Zelensky’s meeting with European leaders in Paris on March 27, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to strike Russia’s energy system, in particular, they launched another strike with Hymers missiles at the Sudzha gas pumping station, completely destroying it.
- Delegations from Ukraine and Russia arrived in Saudi Arabia on March 24 to discuss with US representatives the technical details of the agreements to stop attacks on energy infrastructure and seaports, as well as to resume full-scale trade in the Black Sea zone.
While the level and experience of the members of the Ukrainian delegation did not allow for productive discussion, bringing the negotiations down to an exchange of information, the level of the Russian delegation allowed for the discussion and resolution of important issues to implement the decisions made by Putin and Trump. The delegation included the Chairman of the Russian Senate Committee on International Affairs, former Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and Advisor to the Director of the FSB, Colonel General Sergei Beseda, former Head of the Fifth Service of the FSB (Service for Operational Information and International Relations).
Karasin and Beseda were responsible for relations between Russia and Ukraine during the Maidan in 2014, the coup d’état that led to the anti-Russian turn in Ukraine, as well as during the entire period of escalating military confrontation from 2014 to 2022. Representing the Foreign Ministry and special services of Russia, Karasin and Beseda led the annexation of Crimea to Russia, oversaw the conflict in Donbass and the Minsk agreements implementation. They negotiated with Washington the “rules” of war, and prepared a special operation and invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Beseda played an important role in taking by Putin the decision to introduce troops into Ukraine. Putin was confident that the Ukrainian elites were ready to overthrow the pro-Western regime in Kyiv. After Putin and the Kremlin realized that the invasion was a mistake, that it was a trap that Russia fell into, being unprepared for a big, tough war with Ukraine and the West, becoming not a liberator, as Putin and his entourage had counted on, but an aggressor in the world public opinion, Beseda was not only removed from his post, but, according to the Russian anti-government media, was placed under house arrest and even taken into custody. After the investigation, Beseda was appointed advisor to the Director of the FSB and continued to oversee Ukraine.
There is no doubt that Karasin and Beseda know very well many secrets of Zelensky, the leading Ukrainian politicians, businessmen, military commanders, about their ties with Europe and the United States, including with top Democrats and the special services. This knowledge allows them to discuss in detail all technical issues, including the creation of a system to monitor the implementation of agreements using space and cyber technologies, including to prevent the use of civilian ships for transportation of weapons and ammunition across the Black Sea that Moscow insists on, as well as holding elections in Ukraine to change the Zelensky regime.
The Kremlin has given Karasin and Beseda another chance to recoup Russia’s losses from the mistakes made before and during the invasion and to pay back those who lured Putin and Russia into the “Ukraine” trap. And it is unlikely that Karasin and Beseda will miss their chance.
- According to reports from Kyiv, deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian Parliament, do not plan to discuss the extension of martial law in Ukraine that ends in May 2025, although Zelensky had previously spoken about the need to extend martial law. After his conversation with Trump, preparations for extending martial law in Ukraine stopped.
- In Russia, the recruitment of volunteers from prisons and detention centres has ceased, and business began preparations for work in conditions of peace and the lifting of some sanctions in May-June 2025, including export of products through the Black Sea ports.
All these signs and facts indicate that,
Firstly, Trump and Putin made a decision to end hostilities and establish a ceasefire in Ukraine from the end of April;
secondly, a decision was made to hold elections in Ukraine in August-September and to conclude a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine by the end of October 2025, and Zelensky was forced to agree with these decisions. To hold elections, Russia and the US will initiate the introduction of temporary governance in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN;
thirdly, the US will recognize Crimea and Donbass as Russian territories, and that will ensure international recognition for these territories, lifting of sanctions, and freedom of trade and economic relations. However, Zelensky, and whoever comes to power after him, will hardly be able to officially recognize these territories as Russian. Thus, some territories of Soviet Ukraine will simultaneously be part of two states. However, that will allow them to sign a peace treaty and start reintegrating their economies;
Fourthly, a model for developing cooperation between the United States and Russia on projects of mutual interest is currently being created on the territory of Ukraine. The United States and Russia will use this model in other regions of the world where there is a need and opportunity to stabilize the situation through joint efforts.
What is this new model? There is no clear information. Neither Washington nor Moscow have yet given clear definition. This model is just being developed in the negotiation process. Nevertheless, its main features and characteristics can be noted.
One of the main features of the model is that, in the course of negotiations, the United States and Russia are consciously and purposefully developing and building a model of a third state – Ukraine, that includes limitation of its sovereignty and allows its integration into the political, financial and economic systems of both, the United States and Russia.
Both Russia and the United States are now actively building their civilizational macro-regions. The new world order, the process of creation of which was initiated by the BRICS countries and has been snapped up and taken over by the Trump team, is based precisely on the interaction of world civilizations and the macro-regions they create.
These macro-regions will inevitably intersect along their perimeters, overlap, and conjugate. Some peripheral states will be integrated not into one, but into several macro-regions at once. This will inevitably lead to a change in their sovereignty as independent states and their political, economic and financial reintegration.
Such processes are actively taking place on the territory of the former USSR, the Russian Empire. The collapse of the USSR and the underestimation by Moscow, primarily by the Russians themselves, of the importance of the former Soviet republics and their peoples for Russian civilization, for ensuring the strategic stability of Russia, its economic and cultural-civilizational development led to the growth of nationalism in the states along the perimeter of Russia. Most of the peoples in those states received independence and statehood for the first time in their history, and they searched for new allies, close to them culturally and ethnically.
As a result of this process, while maintaining cultural, political and economic ties with Russia, these peoples and states began to actively integrate into macro-regions created by other civilizations.
The Baltic states were quickly integrated into the EU. Since the late 1990s, Ukraine and Moldova have also begun to integrate into Europe. Moldova’s integration is taking place through Romania, and Ukraine’s through its western regions that were part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Poland. It was Western Ukraine and its nationalism that became the internal locomotive of the anti-Russian turn. The Central Asian republics are actively developing ties with Turkey that is building its own Turkic macro-region.
However, if the Central Asian peoples, while developing ties with Turkey, Europe, the USA and China, maintain civilizational, political and economic ties with Russia and understand that ties with Russia ensure their internal stability, then the ruling elites in Ukraine and Moldova, facing collapse of their economies and state systems, have chosen the path of integration into the West and rejected the legacy of being part of Russia, the Russian Empire and Russian civilization. Following the example of the Baltics, they have chosen their full integration into Western civilization. But by 2000-s, the situation has changed. And the break with Russia, especially for Ukraine, became extremely harsh.
Their confrontation with Russia followed the growing conflict between Russia and the West, primarily with the United States, where Vladimir Putin and those behind him, who came to power with Clinton’s approval and were considered a proxy regime, unexpectedly for Washington appeared to have their own plans, political and geostrategic ambitions, striving for the revival of Russia as superpower and one of the leaders of the world.
In this situation, the turn of Ukraine and Moldova into anti-Russia proxies was predetermined. Moreover, having become anti-Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia deprived themselves of the opportunity to fully integrate into Western civilization. They became too toxic and dangerous for the West.
The mistakes of the Ukrainian elites and leaders, especially the last two presidents, Poroshenko and Zelensky, were based on their misunderstanding of the reasons for the collapse of the USSR, their incorrect assessment of the current state of both the West and Russia. It was important that Poroshenko (real name – Valtsman) and Zelensky are neither ethnically Russian nor Ukrainian. For them, the historical ties between Ukrainians and Russians did not have much significance.
The Ukrainian post-Soviet elites believed that the West had won the Cold War, that the West had grown so strong on the ruins of the former socialist countries, absorbing their resources, wealth and economic potential, and that Russia had lost too much and weakened so much that it would not be able to recover in the coming decades. They believed that Ukraine, relying on the powerful West, would be able to defeat Russia, including in an open military conflict.
Generations brought up in the post-Soviet era did not understand that Gorbachev’s perestroika, which led to the collapse of the USSR, was caused by the desire, firstly, to accelerate the transition of the Soviet economy to a new technological level, and secondly, by the global trend in the world to remove the contradictions between the two blocs led by the USA and the USSR. In 1970-s and 1980-s, the Soviet and the US leaders understood that confrontation blocked the economic and scientific-technical development of both blocks and all mankind.
The haste and ill-considered actions of Gorbachev and the desire of the bureaucracy in the USSR to privatize public property led to the crisis and collapse of the USSR. In fact, the USSR was undermined and plundered from within, and the West became the beneficiary, not the winner.
However, the transition to a new technological level, which Gorbachev rushed to make so hastily and thoughtlessly in the 1980s, has not been cancelled. And the USA, having exhausted the possibilities of its development at the expense of the countries of the former USSR and faced with the strengthening of China, India, the countries of Southeast Asia and Latin America, has now begun its own transition.
Unlike the USSR, in the US this process was led by the business elite, the owners and managers of the largest corporations in the high-tech sector, who understand the inevitability of such a transition and strive to maintain US leadership in the world. At the head of this group stand its most passionate representatives, including Trump, Musk and the leaders of other manufacturing and AI corporations.
If Gorbachev, a party bureaucrat by profession, mentality and life experience, had to rely on bureaucracy and at the same time, to fight the party and state bureaucracy from within, then Trump and his team are fighting bureaucracy, relying on the US business and trans-national corporations. Trump’s team is capable of doing this transition effectively and consistently, without experiencing significant resistance in the United States.
In Europe the situation is more complicated.
It was Europe that initiated and started the restructuring of international relations, including detente and disarmament, unfolded in the 1970s and 1980s. Globalism in the form of detente and convergence of two opposing social systems began precisely in Europe. And it was in Europe, in two German states, that a new model of conjugation and reintegration of macro-regions began to be developed and created.
The model, which envisaged the integration of independent states, sovereignties, as well as alliances and blocs, including military ones, NATO and the Warsaw Pact, began in Europe, generated by the UK, France and Germany, but was derailed by the collapse of one of the blocs as a result of a series of hasty and ill-considered decisions by Gorbachev and his entourage.
The West perceived the collapse of the USSR as its victory in the Cold War, and instead of continuing the process of creating a new world order started by Gorbachev and Reagan, and then Bush Senior, the West turned around and began to preserve and strengthen the old world order, now based not on the relationship of two superpowers and blocs, but on one centre of power while maintaining the same outdated system of interactions between countries, economies, civilizations, cultures, where power decided everything and established its own rules.
However, such a world order blocked the development of technologies, cultures, the financial system leaving it with outdated banking system dependent on speculative capital, and currencies, money that did not reflect real value and blocked the development of social capital, intellectual potential, AI, political and public structures.
Now Trump and his team have begun transformation of the US economy and state system, as well as the creation of a new world order, forgotten by Washington for thirty years.
Europe has remained in the old system. Europe continues to fight for the old world order, which once it began to change. And Europe has become an opponent of Trump and his team, and therefore of the United States.
Relying on the power of the West, Zelensky could not predict that the West would split, and the centre of power, the United States, would become an opponent of Europe and Zelensky.
(To be continued)
