(from the series “Trump’s America and the New World Order”, part 8)
European leaders’ strategic mistake was that they believed that there was one big war going on in Ukraine, and that this was war between Russia and Ukraine, and the United States, Europe and their allies supported Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression.
They still believe that the negotiations between Washington and Moscow are now about the terms of peace in Ukraine and control over its territory, infrastructure and natural resources. Europe is fighting for its right to participate in these negotiations, and for Zelensky’s right to participate in determining the fate of Ukraine.
In reality, there were several wars merged into one process. And the main was the war between the USA and Russia. It was this war that formed the core of the entire confrontation in Ukraine.
The main warring party in the US were the leaders of the Democratic Party, the elite political and financial groups formed during the Bill Clinton administration, who approved Vladimir Putin to rule in Russia. The American Administration and Bill Clinton personally did this by approving Putin’s candidacy, presented to him by Boris Yeltsin, his clan, the so-called “Family”, and the oligarchs who ruled Russia at that time.
Officially, Bill Clinton approved Putin’s candidacy in 1999. In reality, the Americans learned that Putin had become the leading candidate for the post of President of Russia back in 1996, when Putin was invited to work in Moscow, and in very narrow circles in the Kremlin it was already known that he was being considered as Yeltsin’s successor. I was told this by those close to Pavel Borodin, the head of the Presidential Property Management Department, in 1996, a week after Putin came to Moscow and was appointed as Borodin’s deputy. Washington had the opportunity to learn about this, but it is possible that the Americans paid little attention to this information then. I myself did not believe it.
Washington and Europe saw Putin as pro-Western, soft, indecisive, fired from the KGB after an unsuccessful career, involved in corrupt schemes, ready to obey both oligarchs and Russia’s Western curators. Considerable compromising evidence had been collected on Putin. It was believed that he did not see any future for Russia outside Western civilization, outside Europe, dreamed of Russia’s membership in NATO, and was content with Russia’s role as a “gas station” with obsolete missiles that were gradually being scrapped.
However, after a few years it turned out that behind Putin stood a group that supervised the development of the most promising areas of the Soviet military-defence complex, including in the Central Committee of the CPSU. After the collapse of the USSR, the failures of Boris Yeltsin and his Family, and the incompetence and inability of the oligarchs to govern the state and develop Russia, this group began a secret operation to restore their power in the Kremlin. And Putin was chosen by them for the role of the new ruler not because he was the best and most worthy, but precisely because he could go that way, sometimes humiliated, enduring the rudeness of the oligarchs, and he was exactly the kind of candidate who could be approved by the Clintons.
Having come to power, Putin began quietly, covering his actions with obviously corrupt puppet-figures and clans, to quietly restore the core of the collapsed Soviet defence complex. He did it slowly, in his own manner, without rapid success, but he was remarkably good at hiding the process of restoration and revival. And that was exactly what those who were reviving the military-industrial complex of Russia needed. They needed time and silence.
Putin’s speech in Munich in 2007 was an open signal that the Kremlin was returning to the world stage, that Russia was becoming a power centre that the West, especially Washington, would have to reckon with. And Moscow would not accept NATO’s further eastward advance toward Russia’s borders.
Russia began to actively pursue its independent foreign policy, to strengthen cooperation with India, to return to the Middle East, Africa and even Latin America, a vital area for the United States. And Russia began to actively restore relations with China.
At the same time, China began to transform from a developing country with economy formed by enterprises, factories and technologies of Western corporations, mainly the US, that actively invested in Chinese industry since the early 1990s, into a potential competitor of the USA, the EU, Japan and Korea. The development began of Chinese science, corporations in technologically advanced sectors, in the defence and space, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence.
Beijing also has begun to turn toward Moscow, looking at Russia not only as its possible energy and resource stronghold, but also as an ally in a future world where the United States will no longer be the undisputed leader and sole superpower. Beijing heard Putin’s signal in Munich.
This signal was not accepted by many in the West. It caused surprise and ridicule. However, the Clintons and the elites of the Democratic Party heard the signal, and the reaction to it was harsh. Putin turned out to be not who he was taken for in Washington. He lost trust and became potentially dangerous.
One of the ways of exerting pressure on Russia was to increase aid and support for anti-Putin opposition in Russia and anti-Russian forces in the former Soviet republics surrounding Russia. After the collapse of the USSR, the territory of the former Russian Empire, nationalism began to grow in independent states that received statehood for the first time in their history.
Ukraine began to turn into the main zone of growth of anti-Russian sentiments, into the front line with Russia. There were many reasons for this, including the historic ties of Western Ukraine with Europe. It was in Western Ukraine, under the control and governance of Austria-Hungary and Poland, that a hard version of Ukrainian nationalism arose.
Important reasons for the growth of anti-Russian sentiments were the historical rifts between Ukrainianism and Russian civilization, and the growing conflicts between corrupt clans of the Ukrainian and Russian elites.
Putin’s habit of acting covertly, with delays, allowing the enemy to show himself fully, underestimating the harm and danger to the state of corruption and overestimating the importance of the financial dependence of Ukrainian ruling clans on Russia, relying on those who were not the best and most efficient, but on those who could be easily controlled and manipulated, who were loyal to him and could not pose a threat, led to the fact that the process of de-Russification of Ukraine, stimulated and financed by the West, led to the Maidans in Kyiv, and then to a coup d’etat, which finally turned Ukraine against Russia.
It was then that the war became inevitable, and the main component of this war was the confrontation between Washington and the Kremlin. In fact, the proxy war began in 2014, and its first act was the overthrow of Ukrainian President Yanukovych, the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the beginning of the pro-Russian movement in Donbass and the de facto separation of part of Donbass from Ukraine.
The first period of Donald Trump’s presidency put the proxy war on hold, but did not stop the forces of war.
In 2025, Trump stopped the war, and he began to do that so as soon as he took the oath and entered the White House.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s words about the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, that he said in his interview with Fox News on March 6, in particular, that “President Trump views this conflict as a protracted, dead-end conflict,” that “this is a proxy war between nuclear powers, in which the United States is helping Ukraine, and Russia,” and “this must be put to an end,” became the clearest manifestation of those hidden processes that had been taking place between the United States and Russia since Trump’s victory in the elections.
These words were met with great disappointment both in the Office of the President of Ukraine and in Europe, especially in Brussels. In Russia, Rubio’s statement was received with admiration, but without surprise.
If in Europe and the US during Biden’s presidency the war was presented by politicians and the media as a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, where Putin acted as the aggressor, then in Moscow since November 2022, when it became clear that Putin, and with him all of Russia, had fallen into a trap, Russian politicians and the media began to openly talk and write about the war in Ukraine as a direct conflict, as a proxy and hybrid war between the West and Russia. From that moment on, Russia’s policy was built on the assumption that it would be necessary to defeat not Ukraine, but the West, primarily the US.
Zelensky was elected as the leader of the party of peace with Russia, 72% of Ukrainians voted for him, but having come to power, he headed the party of war. Zelensky understood the war with Russia precisely as a confrontation between the West and Russia, in which he and Ukraine play the role of the vanguard, the advanced force that will inevitably win and reap the fruits of victory.
Zelenskyy was convinced that in this war, the US and Europe, as well as their allies on other continents, would guarantee Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat, and Zelenskyy would remain in history as a great figure, a hero and leader of the world, while Putin would disappear in disgrace into oblivion.
Russia turned out to be not as ready for war as the heads of the security agencies and Ministry of Defence reported to Putin, but it was ready enough to begin the restoration and development of the armed forces and industry to the level necessary for victory in the war in Ukraine after disperse of the corrupted clans that had previously ruled the armed forces.
This war gave the impetus to the development of science, technology, industry, which was sought by those who began to move Vladimir Putin to power in the mid-1990s. That was why in 2022, they also supported the special operation in Ukraine. The war gave them the opportunity to begin actively drying out the corrupt swamp in which Russia was mired, that blocked the country’s development.
And now, they no longer need the war.
The new US Administration and the American business behind it, that is based on the latest technologies and manages real production, whose interests Trump and his team primarily reflect and protect, also found the war with Russia not just unnecessary, but dangerous.
The West is facing the threat of losing its leadership in science, technology and the most important branches of industry, and consequently in armaments.
In terms of purchasing power parity, China’s GDP already exceeds that of the United States, with India in third place and Russia in fourth. In terms of industrial production, China has also taken first place. In 2024, the annual growth of industrial production in China was 6%, in India – 3.5%, in Russia – 8%, in the United States – 0.5%.
Most important is that China and India are breaking ahead in cyber technologies and AI. Secretly, without advertising its achievements, in the manner of Putin, Russia is accelerating its development in these areas, and the war creates additional incentives for this breakthrough and provides opportunity to test new technologies.
The main threat to the USA and the entire West is the excessive cost and inefficiency of the state system and the corruption of the state apparatus that slows down the transition of the US economy and society to a new technological level.
Trump and his team see their main tasks in accelerating the transfer of the economy, financial system and defence complex to a new technological level. That can be achieved by a breakthrough in education, science, the use of AI and robots that requires explosive development of energy production, including doubling the production of electricity in the US in the next five years, and at the same time, significantly reducing its cost.
The war in Ukraine has shown that the army, air force and navy must be changed completely. Ships appeared to be huge, poorly protected targets. Aviation can only operate effectively at a significant distance from the front line. The losses of the Ukrainian army from Russian drones amount to 80% of all losses of both manpower and equipment, and this is despite the fact that Russia has a complete advantage in aviation and artillery, and along the entire over thousand-kilometre front line, soldiers of the two armies are constantly engaged in close combat. The share of losses from Ukrainian drones for the Russian army is even higher. Thus, drone operators, who make up less than 1% of the armed forces, inflict more than 80% of losses on the enemy army in a modern war.
This makes AI, cyber technologies, communications and cyber defence systems especially important both for combat operations and for the functioning of the entire economy, financial, social and information spheres. It is AI and cyber systems that, at a new level of technological development of society, become the main bonds that ensure interaction between people, public and government structures. A breach of cyber defence systems, which can be created by a small group of specialists, can cause losses of hundreds of units of military equipment, tens of thousands of soldiers and cause damage amounting to billions of dollars.
War has become different. War has become too costly, although it has not yet moved into space and cyberspace. And this is one of the main lessons of the war in Ukraine.
The US needs to focus on creating new types of weapons, and the war in Ukraine is draining resources and finances, requiring the continued production of those weapons that are used by the Ukrainian army, including those that Trump, his team and their supporters, and this is the majority of world business, are demanding to abandon.
To rebuild America, Trump and his team need peace and stability, which will allow them to concentrate their efforts and resources on key development areas. The US plans to reduce the military budget by 8% annually for four years and, during this period, to cut the budget by half, taking into account inflation.
The main areas of development will be areas that will ensure the strategic security of the American macro-region, including missile defence and cybersecurity systems, as well as space forces. This will require the US to double the production of energy resources, electricity, and abandon obsolete industries.
In December 2024, Trump and Putin began the process of ending the war between the United States and Russia. Contacts and negotiations about the future world order began between Trump’s trusted men and the Kremlin even before Trump officially became President of the United States, and when Trump took the oath of office, such contacts and negotiations, while maintaining secrecy, became official.
The main thing that the White House and the Kremlin have already achieved is the contours and basic principles of the future world order, and that have been agreed upon with the leadership of China and India.
Europe has found itself on the sidelines of this process. Russia sees the European political elites as an enemy, while Washington sees most of the leaders of European countries as allies of the Democrats, Trump’s internal rivals, those who are preventing him from carrying out perestroika in the American style.
Trump and his team do not trust Zelensky and the current leaders of Europe, who supported Biden and Harris and opposed the creation of a new world order. As a result, Europe found itself outside the negotiating process between the US and Russia.
The idea of a ceasefire was agreed upon between Washington and Moscow before it was proposed to Kyiv and Europe. Putin insisted on Zelensky’s illegitimacy, on the need for him to step down or be re-elected. This requires holding presidential elections, which requires a halt to hostilities and a ceasefire.
But Russia could not openly propose a truce. Therefore, the idea of a truce was put forward by Washington. It was supported by Ukraine and Europe, and then presented as a demand of the West, Europe and Ukraine to Russia. This idea became a trap, from which Zelensky has only one way out – new elections, which will inevitably lead to his removal from power.
In order for Zelensky to accept the loss of power and ensure a transition period that would end with the signing of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, Washington held talks in Riyadh with Zelensky’s representatives. There, they and Zelensky, who was nearby, but not allowed to personally participate in the negotiations, were given an offer, ultimatum that he could not refuse.
Now, with the Kremlin’s acceptance of the ceasefire proposal, the trap has slammed shut. European leaders and Zelensky will be forced to accept all the points of this agreement, including the “nuances” that the Kremlin will come up with at the last stage, including, probably, the lifting of some sanctions, the unfreezing of Russian state and private assets, as well as the restoration of gas pipelines, including Nord Stream, oil pipelines and the restoration of logistics, most of which will become the property of American corporations.
And here we must dwell on the second trap, the so-called Agreement on Rare Earths, that Trump insisted on. This agreement was originally proposed by Zelensky, who brought the idea to Paris, where he presented it to Trump.
Both the Kremlin and the White House know that there are no particularly rich or unique deposits of rare earth metals in Ukraine. There are deposits, some of them even have a certain value, but most of them require huge investments and do not have great commercial prospects in the current conditions. That is why they were not developed either in the USSR or in pre-war Ukraine.
The idea was a dummy that Zelensky offered to Trump to appease him and to imprive relationship with him. However, Trump realized that this could be a good basis for creating a new system of governance not only for Ukraine, but also for other crisis regions. Russia agreed. And this will be discussed in the next part of this series…
(To be continued)
