(from the series “Trump’s America and the New World Order” part 12)

The “Rubio Ultimatum”, which was put forward on April 17 in Paris by the US Secretary of State to Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders, has so far only been partially implemented.

Rubio demanded that Kiev conclude an agreement on minerals with the United States and sign a peace treaty with Russia. On April 30, Kiev signed the Agreement on the Establishment of the U.S.-Ukraine Investment Fund for Reconstruction, which the White House continues to call the “minerals deal,” but peace talks between Kiev and Moscow have not even begun.

Moreover, since the signing of the U.S.-Ukraine Agreement, Russian air strikes and the pace of Russian troop advances on the front have increased sharply, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces have stepped up drone attacks on targets inside Russia. Zelensky has threatened to strike Moscow on May 9, Victory Day, when a parade will be held on Red Square attended by leaders of more than twenty countries, including China, India, Brazil, Slovenia, and Serbia.

The signing of the Agreement on the US – Ukraine joint investment fund became possible after Zelensky’s meeting with Trump in the Vatican, where Zelensky convinced Trump that he could not sign the agreement on minerals in the form Trump demanded. Zelensky proposed dividing the agreement into three parts in order to hide some information from the public and opposition politicians.

He also convinced Trump that in order to ensure the ratification and implementation of the agreement, Zelensky needed time to get the opposition and dissatisfied under control, and that in the coming days he would not be able to make peace with Russia, because Putin insists on conditions that would mean political death for Zelensky. He must either convince or force Putin to abandon Russia’s demands that are unacceptable to Kiev, or find a form of agreement that will allow Zelensky and Putin to present the truce as their victory, at least partial.

Trump agreed, and now what Rubio warned about has happened: Kyiv and Europe remained at war with Russia, and Washington took a break and stepped aside, continuing to supply weapons, but only for EU money, refusing to mediate in negotiations between Kiev and Moscow and waiting for Zelensky and Putin to stop the conflict.

Ratification of the Agreement and the establishment of peace in Ukraine are of fundamental importance to Trump, because this will be the beginning of a new era.

Ukraine, the largest country in Europe by territory, mineral wealth and agriculture potential, its powerful energy system with the potential several times greater than the energy needs of today’s Ukraine, its logistics infrastructure that was the most developed in the USSR, including Black Sea ports and shipyards, its oil, gas and ammonia pipeline systems – all that will be under the management, control and subsequently. In ownership of the international commercial fund registered in the United States, in the state of Delaware.

From this moment on, the US judicial system will prevail and dominate on the territory of Ukraine. Any government official, any Ukrainian legal entity can be investigated in the United States, criminal cases can be initiated, property and finances can be seized if crime is committed or the US laws are violated. This includes Zelensky himself and his inner circle. This includes citizens and legal entities of third countries, including Russia, China and India that will operate in the spheres controlled by the Fund.

Moreover, the Fund’s management may eventually decide to attract new participants, including corporations from European countries, Russia, the Arab monarchies, China, and India.

In Ukraine, the state bureaucracy, local businesses, political and public organizations will have to provide the necessary conditions for the Fund that will become the top manager of the Ukrainian territory and the population.

In fact, a new proxy state system will be created, directly subordinated to the US transnational corporations handpicked by Trump and his team, and the Ukrainian companies appointed by Zelensky and representing his interests. Russian corporations, such as Rosatom, Gazprom, Rostec, others appointed by the Kremlin, as well as Chinese, Arab, European and others, may join them, but they will have to pay an entrance fee, and the “gold card” of a member of the Fund will cost billions of dollars.

Moreover, the Fund, created on Trump’s initiative, may claim and receive the opportunity and right to work on Ukrainian territories that are under Russian control.

Thus, Ukraine can become a zone of interaction of several civilizational macro-regions, primarily American, Russian and European, if European countries follow the path of forming their independent macro-region.

This Trump project that was initiated in the interests of American transnational corporations, could be transformed in the interests of Russian, European, Arab and Chinese corporations.

Moreover, the fund could become a safe haven for Zelensky and his clan, the security guarantee he demanded from the US and Europe, as well as the basis for creating a new Ukrainian business group controlled by Zelensky.

However, the possible and probable in this world does not always and not even often become reality …

The text of only one of the three documents regulating the work of the American-Ukrainian Investment Fund for Reconstruction, has been presented to Ukrainian politicians and the public. The other two documents that regulate the work of the Fund and define the principles of its organization and mechanisms of operation, have not been published and have not even been presented to Ukrainian parliamentarians for review and ratification.

These documents remain secret for obvious reasons: to avoid widespread protests in Ukraine and the growth of opposition to Zelensky. However, the protest is growing, including among those forces, including powerful military groups of nationalists that are not fully under control by Zelensky and the Army General Staff of Ukraine.

When Zelensky says that he cannot guarantee the safety of the Victory Parade in Moscow on May 9, the media presents this statement as “Zelensky’s threat.” However, these statements also contain the message that Zelensky really cannot guarantee that Moscow will not be attacked, because Kiev does not control all of Ukraine’s combat units that are against the Minerals Agreement.

Trump and Zelensky’s plans may be disrupted against their will. If a blow is struck at Moscow, the Kremlin’s response will give no chance for peace in Ukraine for a long time. However, peace is needed for the Fund to start working. The Fund cannot work, even exist in conditions of a brutal war that is currently going on in Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s reaction is mixed. On the one hand, Putin is ready to cooperate with Trump’s team in Ukraine, as well as in other parts of the world, sharing responsibility and profits with Washington.

Despite the pro-Western nature of the current Ukrainian elites, if peace comes, Russia has a chance to restore its influence in the political, cultural and economic spheres in Ukraine. Moreover, if necessary, the modern war can be transformed in the forms that were considered in the 20th century, peacetime political interactions.

However, the Minerals Agreement and the creation of the investment Fund that will manage Ukraine from the United States could create huge problems for both Russia and Putin personally. Russian analysts have noted that after the signing of the American-Ukrainian Agreement, Kirill Dmitriev disappeared from the Russian information field, and that could mean that the signing of the Agreement was perceived by the Kremlin as another deception by Washington, that Dmitriev led Putin into another trap.

Discontent and protest among the Russian people will inevitably grow over the fact that Ukraine was “overslept”, “squandered”, “missed”, that hundreds of thousands of lives were destroyed so that Washington could get the status of manager in the historical part of Rus – Russian Empire-USSR-Russia. For Russians, it will impossible to accept that Kiev, Odessa, Nikolaev and Yekaterinoslav (aka Novorossiysk, Dnepropetrovsk, that is now called “Dnieper”, just like the river itself) from the list of the cities of glory and pride of Russia will finally turn into the US proxy anti-Russia.

And this discontent will be inextricably linked to Putin personally, and Putin understands this. He cannot leave behind such a legacy.

In this situation, there are three possible scenarios.

The first option assumes that Russia will sharply increase its attacks on Ukraine and the pace of its offensive to force Zelensky, despite the help of Europe and the United States, to negotiate on Moscow’s terms.

The second option assumes that Russia will run out of economic steam, and Russia’s losses at the front, as well as the destruction by Ukrainian drones will become unacceptable for Putin, and he will accept that there is only one way out through a peace treaty.

This option is the most discussed both in the West and in Ukraine, but is not considered possible in the Kremlin. In Russia, the public perceives this option as a defeat or betrayal, and the accusation of betrayal has been a death sentence for any ruler or ruling group in Russia throughout history.

For most Russians, this war is a war not only with Ukraine, but also with the West, and any attempt by the Kremlin leadership to admit the impossibility of winning the special operation launched by Putin will be perceived as a defeat. This could mean the end of the regime and the rise to power of a more hard line anti-Western regime.

The third option involves stopping military action and moving to negotiations that would require holding presidential elections in Ukraine to ensure the legitimacy of the new Ukrainian president and the agreement he would negotiate and sign with the Kremlin.

This option allows Moscow to try to use the instability of the pre-election period to replace the Zelensky regime, to create a new government in Ukraine that will satisfy both Trump and Putin.

During the negotiations, Trump and Putin will try to find a compromise that would ensure the preservation of Ukraine as part of the Russian civilizational macro-region, but would provide Washington with the opportunity to control through the Fund of some Ukrainian mineral deposits, businesses and part of the logistics system, pipelines, for example, providing gas, oil and ammonia to Europe.

According to some independent analysts who have sources of information in Moscow and Kyiv, in the Vatican, Trump gave Zelensky 100 days. During this period, Zelensky must agree on a ceasefire with Putin, lift martial law, and ensure that the Verkhovna Rada appoints a transitional government to hold elections for a new president of Ukraine.

This means Trump has agreed to option 3.

90 days left …