(Trump’s America and the New World Order, Part 7)
Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit to the White House lasted less than an hour, but it shook the world. Let’s highlight several moments and outline its possible consequences.
- Washington had been sending signals to Kyiv for five days before the meeting that Zelensky should not come and meet Trump in person. Keith Kellogg, special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, was especially against Zelensky’s visit.
The “Agreement on Rare Earths” is in fact a framework agreement and requires further elaboration, and could have been signed by the Prime Minister or Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, without Zelensky’s visit to the United States. Kiev insisted on a visit and a personal meeting between the presidents. Most of the European leaders supported Kiev.
It was clear that Zelensky intended to use the meeting to convince Trump to continue to help Ukraine in its war and to abandon the peace agreement with Russia. Trump and his team knew this. Zelensky’s attacks on Putin were not unexpected for the American president and his team. The White House was prepared for this.
According to online reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources, before his visit to the White House, Zelensky was under pressure. He was asked to firmly defend Ukraine’s interests and put pressure on Trump.
Zelensky’s inner circle was against this, but Zelensky himself made the decision to take a tough stance. That’s why he was left alone at the meeting: he didn’t have a translator, and during the squabble with Trump and Vance, no one tried to help Zelensky. Everyone sat with red faces, horror in their eyes, and the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Markarova, simply covered her face with her hands, unable to look at what was happening.
Photo: Ambassador of Ukraine Oksana Markarova at the White House
The fact that Zelensky has not been in the best physical and mental condition for quite some time was obvious to everyone and was undoubtedly taken into account by those who insisted on holding a personal meeting between the two presidents, as well as by those who convinced Zelensky to be tough with Trump. This was also taken into account by Trump’s team and that was one of the reasons why they did not want Zelensky to come to Washington.
Of course, no one could have imagined that the very first conversation would turn into an open squabble, that Zelensky, while Vance was addressing him, would utter dirty curses in Russian language on camera, that Trump would ultimately decide to have Zelensky leave the White House before the start of the negotiations. However, the fact that there would be “great television,” as Trump said, was expected.
Before the White House meeting, Zelensky was not considered by either Trump or Putin as a possible peacetime president of Ukraine. They were pushing for elections and planning for a new president to come to power in Kiev with whom both Trump and Putin could do business. The new Ukrainian president, they both hoped, would be able to start détente and a new era in European history.
Zelensky and those behind the visit hoped that the visit would, firstly, influence Trump’s position and delay the process of establishing relations between the US and Russia, and secondly, strengthen Zelensky’s image as a wartime leader and Putin’s opponent.
- In the current situation, it will be very difficult for Zelensky to sign a peace treaty with Russia.
He will not be able to explain to Ukrainians why after being elected as a “peace dealer” he allowed Ukraine and Russia to be drawn into war, why he failed to implement the Minsk and then Istanbul agreements signed by both sides, continued the war that brought huge losses and agreed to give 25%-30% of the territory of Ukraine to Russia.
It will also be difficult for Putin to agree to peace, unless Zelensky agrees to give to Russia all the territories that are already included in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, including those that are still under the control of Ukraine.
In fact, the war will inevitably continue for some time, causing enormous damage to Ukraine and Russia, and huge financial and economic losses to the United States and Europe, threatening to turn into a world war. Or, unless Trump generates some new idea, a new Model that allows to meet interests of all sides.
However, in the White House Zelensky refused to discuss that new Model, and after Zelensky’s visit to the White House, Trump got a chance to shift all costs and losses onto the warring parties and Europe that decided to stand by Zelensky.
- Trump and his team have prioritized solving the US’s domestic problems.
Trump is concentrated on increasing the efficiency of the economy, accelerating the transfer of the economy, financial system and defence complex to a new technological level based on the use of AI and robots. That requires explosive development of energy production, including electricity production in the US by 2-3 times in the next five years, and significantly reducing its cost.
To do this, Trump and his team need peace and stability and cannot agree to the continuation of the war in Ukraine and its possible escalation into an open international conflict.
Russia also needs peace, and not only due to the losses in the war and sanctions, but also in order to be able to join the technological breakthrough of China and the USA, followed by India and some other countries.
Those groups in Russia that used the war to get rid of “civilian generals” in the Ministry of Defence and the army, who blocked the development of the armed forces, space and military-industrial complex, and scientific potential of Russia. Those “civilian generals” were mired in corruption. Now, most of them are out, many of them imprisoned. The task has largely been accomplished, and there is no need to continue the war.
Putin has agreed to consider Trump’s proposal to cut defence spending by 50%. This agreement may include the United States, Russia, and China.
Moscow was also interested in Zelensky’s trip to Washington. Moscow hoped that Trump would be able to influence Europe and soften their policy towards Putin and Russia. At the same time the Kremlin understood that Zelensky would not be able to immediately and unconditionally agree to conclude peace. The war will not stop, but the responsibility for the continuation of the conflict, will clearly fall on Zelensky and those who stand behind him in Europe.
- Zelensky and Trump did not sign the Agreement on Rare Earth, but it looks that he will be forced to sign it.
Otherwise, the US will take the tough stance against Zelensky. The Ukrainian army will be able to receive only those weapons that are old and “excessive” for the US and at the high price with full payment by European countries. This will mean that Europe will pay the costs of American corporations to move to a new technological level. That will also significantly weaken Europe economically and politically.
Being cut off from cheap energy resources, Europe lost the opportunity to quickly increase its energy production and to reduce its cost, and as a result, was deprived of the opportunity to move to a new technological level. The exodus of technological and manufacturing companies and corporations from Europe to the USA, China and India will increase at a tremendous pace.
Considering that electricity in Russia is now cheaper than in Europe, for example, in Great Britain, by 8-9 times, after the peace agreement is concluded, European companies will inevitably rush to Russia, especially if Russia will be able to further reduce the cost of energy production. To do this, it needs to modernise the outdated energy and heating supply systems that had not been modernise since 1960-s. It needs to conduct an audit and implement technological solutions used by Western corporations, and to suppress corruption. This will further reduce the cost of electricity by 30-40%, and the cost of heat supply by 70%. The difference in the cost of electricity and energy resources will force European corporations to transfer energy-intensive production to Russia.
- Negotiations between the US, Russia and China on improving relations and creating a new world order, which have been ongoing for more than a month, will continue regardless of the position of Zelensky or Europe.
However, if Ukraine and Europe refuse to participate in this process, the US, Russia and China will focus on trilateral relations, taking into account interests of the countries that are ready to support Trump’s policies.
The White House, the Kremlin and Beijing will focus on developing cooperation in the Arctic, including the extraction of natural resources, transport and energy infrastructure, and strategic security, as well as the construction of oil and gas pipelines connecting gas and oil fields in the European part of Russia that had been cut off from European market, as well as in Eastern and Central Siberia with China, India, Pakistan, Korea, Japan and the countries of Southeast Asia.
As a result, American corporations will enter into a single cooperation scheme with Chinese and Russian oil, gas, as well as refining and chemical corporations.
Moreover, Putin has already designated the construction of a hydroelectric power station in Krasnoyarsk Region in Siberia as an important Russian-American project. The hydroelectric power station project documentation was made back in Soviet times. This will allow increasing aluminium production and its supply to the United States by 2 million tons per year.
- For joint projects, a Model that has been developed during the US-Russia-China negotiations that have already taken place. This Model was applied to the US-Ukraine Agreement on Rare Earth Metals.
The model envisages the creation of joint investment Fund that will finance projects, including the development of the necessary transport, including the sea ports, railways and airports, energy, including gas and oil pipelines, and social infrastructure that was supposed to be done in post-war Ukraine. That includes both the territory of Ukraine itself and the territories that are incorporated into the Russian Constitution and are under Russian control.
The model also includes the participation of other countries. Trump might have discussed this model with Macron and Starmer, and Putin had discussed it with the leadership of India, Iran and some other countries.
According to some observers, Russia was not only ready to join the US-Ukraine Fund, but also agreed to use its assets seized in the West. Now, if the agreement is not signed by Zelensky, these assets will go to the development of US-Russian projects in Arctic and Siberia.
The same model can be applied to other international projects, including in Africa and the Middle East, particularly in Gaza, the West Bank and Syria, where, as in Ukraine, international non-governmental para-military and police forces to ensure security and order can be created within the framework of the Fund, as one of the Fund’s divisions, and financed by it.
