Валерий Морозов

Modern wars—whether in Ukraine or Iran—demonstrate a common pattern: the initiators not only fail to obtain the results they anticipated, but their actions often lead to the opposite effect. Consequently, those who started the conflicts are forced to shift their objectives and act in ways they never planned or desired.

1. Donald Trump’s Iranian Deadlock: Systemic Crisis and Civilizational Gap

The situation with Iran is a classic example of how military and political success can turn into a strategic defeat. Trump managed to trigger a regime shift by eliminating the previous leadership and dismantling a significant portion of the nuclear industry, yet the result has created threats to long-term U.S. interests.

—  Generational Radicalization: A radicalization of generations has occurred; moderate pragmatists have been replaced by a new generation of leaders (aged 40–50). They are tougher, more aggressive, and far more hostile toward the West and Israel than their predecessors.
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The recent publication by the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding lists of European companies and factories linked to the Ukrainian military-industrial complex (MIC) is not merely an information leak. It is a signal of a new stage of escalation, where the boundaries between the «rear» and the «front» are finally being erased.

1. Target Lists: The MIC at a Distance

The Russian Ministry of Defense has published lists of enterprises in the UK, Germany, Poland, Italy, and the Baltics. These lists feature two categories of companies that supply weaponry to Kyiv, receiving payment from European state loans provided to Ukraine:

• Companies with Ukrainian founders and shareholders.
• Local and transnational corporations producing weaponry and components for Ukraine.

The essence of the signal is simple: Russia is officially declaring these facilities as legitimate military targets. This is a political decision that transforms European factories into potential targets for special operations or strikes.
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Недавняя публикация Министерством обороны России списков европейских компаний и заводов, связанных с украинским ВПК, — это не просто информационный вброс. Это сигнал о начале нового этапа эскалации, где границы между «тылом» и «фронтом» окончательно стираются.

1. Списки целей: ВПК на удалении

Минобороны РФ опубликовало перечни предприятий в Великобритании, Германии, Польше, Италии и Прибалтике. В списках фигурируют две категории компаний, которые поставляют вооружения Киеву, получая оплату из кредитов государств Европы, предоставляемых Украине. В эти категории входят:

• Компании с украинскими учредителями и акционерами.
• Местные и транснациональные корпорации, производящие вооружение и комплектующие для Украины.

Суть сигнала проста: Россия официально объявляет эти объекты своими законными военными целями. Это политическое решение, которое превращает европейские заводы в потенциальные мишени для спецопераций или ударов. Европа втягивается в войну уже не только политически, но и физически.

2. Экономика войны: Кто платит за банкротство Украины?

Проблема глубже, чем просто производство дронов, ракет, снарядов.
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The defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary is more than just the loss of a single party. This event marks the collapse of a governance model built over decades and deals a staggering blow to Donald Trump’s strategy in Europe. To understand why this happened and how it links Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington, one must look deep into the mechanics of the system.

1. The Hungarian Precedent: A Revolution Against the «Crypto-State»

Analysts were mistaken in predicting an Orban victory based on the loyalty of small towns. In reality, the opposite occurred: people did not vote against Orban’s ideas, but against the bureaucracy he created.

Over 20 years, corrupt clans formed in Hungary, monopolizing financial flows and local power. This is a classic «crypto-state»—a shadow structure emerging within the official system. This phenomenon is rooted in the Soviet era.

In my book, *The Secret History of Communism in Russia*, I describe how, under conditions of scarcity, the bureaucracy created artificial resource shortages to enrich themselves through the shadow market.
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