Валерий Морозов

A real possibility has emerged—a major chance that the war involving Russia, Ukraine, and Europe will end in the very near future. The catalyst for this process is the «Easter Truce» announced by Russia. However, this is more than just a religious gesture; fundamental conditions have converged, making the continuation of hostilities practically impossible.

1. The Technological Limit: When War Loses Its Meaning

The primary factor is the technological revolution. Much like the situation in Iran, the war in Ukraine has reached a level where the means of mutual destruction make victory prohibitively expensive. The entire modern international order is built on the principles of «Western democracy»: a struggle for interests that continues only as long as the benefits outweigh the losses.

We have reached a point where losses—economic, resource-based, and reputational—have become critical for all parties. Technology, specifically the dominance of drones, has transformed the front into a 50-kilometer «killzone» that neither side can overcome without a new technological and weapon breakthrough.
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Сегодня возникла реальная возможность того, что война между Россией, Украиной и Европой закончится в ближайшее время. Точкой отсчета может стать «пасхальное перемирие», объявленное Россией. Но дело не только в религиозном жесте — сложились фундаментальные условия, при которых продолжение боевых действий становится невозможным.

1. Технологический предел: когда война теряет смысл

Главный фактор — это технологическая революция. Как и в ситуации с Ираном, война в Украине достигла уровня, когда средства взаимного уничтожения делают победу слишком дорогой. Весь мировой порядок зиждется на принципах «западной демократии»: борьба за интересы ведется до тех пор, пока выгода превышает потери.

Сейчас мы подошли к точке, где потери (экономические, ресурсные, репутационные) стали критическими для всех. Технологии (прежде всего, дроны) превратили фронт в 50-километровую «зону смерти» (killzone), которую не может преодолеть ни одна из сторон. Наступление невозможно: для России это означало бы необходимость миллионной мобилизации, что стало бы концом политического режима; для Украины — окончательное истощение демографического ресурса и гибель экономики.
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Crucial negotiations between the United States and Iran are about to begin in Pakistan. The information space is flooded with reports about the risks of a ceasefire, but analysts are missing the main point. Almost no one in Europe or Russia is talking about the role of China, which is not merely a mediator but the key architect of this process. Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing — that is the true center of gravity in global politics.

1. Regime Change: Iranian Reality vs. Propaganda

It is currently fashionable to say that Trump «lost» to Iran by failing to achieve a change of system. But let’s examine what «regime change» actually means. A regime is the group controlling a country.

Recall Russia in the 1990s (I described this in detail in my book *Entering the Kremlin*, available for download on my website ValeryMorozov.com
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The ceasefire in the Middle East is merely a pause, masking tectonic shifts in the region’s structure. While most analysts skim the surface, discussing the interests of the US, Iran, or Israel, they ignore the most critical factor: the fate of the Gulf Monarchies.

1. Reformatting the Owners of Oil

The Gulf Monarchies have traditionally been the masters of their resources, but today they are ceasing to be sovereign subjects in the «Great Game.» One of the unspoken goals of the current conflicts is the transformation—or removal—of these archaic structures. Oil must pass under the direct control of Transnational Corporations (TNCs).

It is vital to understand the difference: TNCs are not state bureaucratic machines (like those in Russia), but structures with millions of shareholders and strict personal accountability for top management. This is why it is easier for the US to work with China than with Russian state corporations, where the leadership, protected by clan interests, bears no responsibility for systemic failures.
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