The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will determine the course of the conflict in Ukraine for this year, and possibly the fate of the war. Nevertheless, the capture of Bakhmut by the Russian PMC Wagner remains one of the main events of 2023.

At this point it is important to analyze the battle in Bakhmut, including the so-called the “Prigozhin rebellion”, and the first results of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine not as separate events, but in their interconnectedness. That will allow us to more deeply understand the processes that are taking place at the front, as well as within the Russian political elites and its armed forces, and between Russia and the West outside of Ukraine.

Moreover, those events signal that there is a force rapidly growing and increasing its influence on the international arena that can become important factor and instrument in the conflict between the West and Russia.
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