In mid-April, it seemed that a war between Russia and Ukraine was quite likely, and it was possible that the world was closer to a new major military conflict in Europe than it looked from the West.
The reason for underestimating the threat was that Washington, London, Paris and Berlin did not evaluate properly the actions of not only Vladimir Putin, but also Vladimir Zelensky. The inaccurate assessment of plans and actions of the Moscow Kremlin and the office on Bankovaya Street in Kiev, where the Administration of the Ukrainian President is located, increases the likelihood of conflict in near future.
To better understand the motives of Moscow and Kiev and to predict their actions in near future, it is necessary to analyze the bearings of Putin’s Russia and modern Ukraine.
Let’s start from the Moscow Kremlin.