The modern global crisis surrounding Ukraine, Russia, and Europe has reached a point where ignoring fundamental shifts in reality is no longer possible. What just yesterday was met with skepticism or denial by the expert community is now recognized by official media. The situation for Ukraine is taking on a catastrophic nature—and this is not merely due to a critical deficit of air defence systems, but rather a deep, systemic misunderstanding of the very nature of the ongoing war.

The Decline of «Humanoid» Analytics: Old Templates Collapse as the Rear Becomes the Primary Front

               The primary flaw in current political and military planning—in the West and Ukraine, as well as in Russia—lies in the absolute dominance of armchair analysts.

At one time, within the expert community of the Soviet foreign policy apparatus, specialists who wrote briefing papers for the Central Committee of the Communist party, based on outdated, irrelevant data and second-hand texts were ironically dubbed «humanoids.» They did not work «in the field,» had no feel for the spirit and real mechanisms of unfolding events, yet constructed virtual worldviews.

Today, these very «humanoid» concepts dictate bureaucratic and administrative decisions. Politicians are guided by reports from people who fail to grasp that the basic rules have changed. This has led to critical consequences:

• The Economic Illusion: The West calculated that its financial and economic power would automatically secure victory for Ukraine and dismantle Russia. This led to a gross underestimation of the Russian military-industrial complex, the role of air defence systems, and cutting-edge weaponry. The result: Ukraine and the West are left critically depleted of air defence missiles.
• Planning Error: Ukrainian elites preparing for a military scenario on a war of a past generation, completely failing to realize that new technologies and weapon types would turn rear cities, logistics, and transport hubs into targets of unrelenting missile and drone strikes.

The Logic of «Petty Shopkeepers» vs. Civilizational War

The fundamental impasse of the conflict stems from a profound mismatch between the scale of unfolding events and the mindset of the ruling clans in Russia, Ukraine, and Europe.

When a conflict touches upon the survival of entire socio-cultural models, it ceases to yield to the quick arithmetic of military campaigns and negotiations. Donald Trump, when confronted with the Iranian knot, realized he had stepped into a civilizational war from which the U.S. needed to extract itself to avoid unacceptable damage.

Simultaneously, political clans in Kyiv, Moscow, and Brussels continue to act like petty shopkeepers. Their decisions are driven by personal and narrow-group career ambitions, monetary interests, corporate greed, and petty political profit.

Operating under the logic of petty bargaining, the Ukrainian leadership regularly delivers targeted media and infrastructure «pricks.» In response comes a systemic blow from a heavy «club,» shattering the remnants of the country’s economic life. Petty-bourgeois pragmatism is incapable of calculating that such tactics lead inexorably to self-destruction.

The Crisis of Marxism and the Forgotten Moral Factor: The Lesson of the Failed Soviet Experiment

At the root of the current managerial chaos lies a deep ideological and philosophical flaw inherited from the Soviet past.

In my work The Secret History of Communism in Russia, I analysed in detail the conflict between Vladimir Lenin and Alexander Bogdanov—a leader of the Bolsheviks in the early 20th century and the creator of Tektology (the foundation of systems theory and cybernetics). Bogdanov demonstrated that as complex systems develop, consciousness, spirit, and moral-ethical principles begin to play a decisive role.

Lenin, however, rejected Bogdanov, branding him a «subjective idealist,» and embedded a vulgar materialism devoid of an ethical component into the Soviet system. This led to the mummification of socialism and the subsequent degeneration of the party bureaucracy into a banal capitalist bourgeoisie. Today’s elites, stripped of moral-ethical compasses and a spiritual foundation, are guided primarily by financial and political interests, often discarding moral principles—a path that inevitably leads to catastrophe.

The Two-Tiered Structure of the New War

Modern technologies are erasing traditional notions of conflict geography. Today, a nation’s territory is deformed into two fundamentally distinct zones:

• The Front and the Kill Zone: A strip of direct destruction extending hundreds of kilometres wide. The number of personnel engaged in direct contact on the front lines has decreased tenfold compared to 2022–2023. Combat is conducted by targeted micro-groups of 2–3 people under the continuous crosshairs of drones.
• The Rear Front: The entire remaining territory of the state becomes the primary battlefield. Strikes on energy grids, bridges, logistics hubs, and warehouses have transformed Left-Bank and Central Ukraine into a zone unsuitable for the functioning of state institutions and normal civilian life.

The Transition Period: Coercion to Peace and the Special Zone Model

The decision on the necessity of ending the war has already been made by key global players. However, its implementation hinges on breaking the resistance of the leadership in Kyiv.

Lacking the resources to sustain a rear war and deprived of an air defence dome, Zelenskyy and his regime are becoming an increasingly vulnerable link in the equation. In the near future, critical strikes on key logistics facilities (bridges across the Dnipro, major railway junctions) using high-precision missile systems—including North Korean complexes developed in cooperation with the Russian and Chinese defence industries—are to be expected.

It is obvious that after the active phase concludes, controlling these territories under the old model will be impossible. The need for an interstate Special Economic Zone, operating on entirely new administrative, tax, and technological principles, is rapidly maturing.

This requires a transitional mechanism. The transition to peace will demand complex collaborative work to delineate authority in the Kill Zone and in rear areas. Without directly factoring in moral-ethical principles and abandoning the petty logic of profiteering, building a sustainable system across the post-Soviet space will be impossible.