A real possibility has emerged—a major chance that the war involving Russia, Ukraine, and Europe will end in the very near future. The catalyst for this process is the «Easter Truce» announced by Russia. However, this is more than just a religious gesture; fundamental conditions have converged, making the continuation of hostilities practically impossible.
1. The Technological Limit: When War Loses Its Meaning
The primary factor is the technological revolution. Much like the situation in Iran, the war in Ukraine has reached a level where the means of mutual destruction make victory prohibitively expensive. The entire modern international order is built on the principles of «Western democracy»: a struggle for interests that continues only as long as the benefits outweigh the losses.
We have reached a point where losses—economic, resource-based, and reputational—have become critical for all parties. Technology, specifically the dominance of drones, has transformed the front into a 50-kilometer «killzone» that neither side can overcome without a new technological and weapon breakthrough. Meaningful advancement is impossible: for Russia, it would require a million-man mobilization, which would likely spell the end of Putin’s political regime; for Ukraine, it would mean the final exhaustion of its remaining demographic and economic resources.
2. The Trump Factor and the «Iranian Scenario»
Donald Trump fundamentally needs peace. His standing in the White House and the upcoming Congressional elections are precarious, and «ending wars» is his primary political trump card. We are already seeing the blueprints for a new system of interaction being tested in Iran. Trump may use aggressive rhetoric regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but in reality, this is merely bargaining for better terms in a new global deal.
This process inevitably draws Ukraine into its orbit. Zelensky, realizing there is no military solution, is searching for a way to «fit in» to this new reality. To preserve power and keep the country from collapse, he needs more than just ammunition; he needs corporations, investment, and a functioning business environment.
3. Why This Truce Could Become Permanent
The Easter Truce is more than just twenty-four hours of silence. If this ceasefire holds for even a few days, restarting the flywheel of active large-scale combat will be psychologically and logistically difficult.
At this stage, transnational corporations of the new generation of technological development enter the fray. In the new system currently being constructed in the Middle East—and now projected onto Ukraine and Russia—the leading roles are played not by politicians or generals, but by business structures. They are driven by the need to reach agreements because business is not about war; it is about the joint exploitation of resources and markets.
4. A New Reality for the Post-Soviet Space
The war must essentially conclude by May. By announcing this pause, Putin has provided the necessary «nudge,» initiating a process that is now difficult to stop.
However, a ceasefire is only the beginning. Both Ukraine and Russia will have to face a difficult question: what will they look like after this war? Currently, the other republics of the former USSR see only the inefficiency of both sides. Neither Russia nor Ukraine, in their current states, serves as a model to follow. To become centres of attraction in the future, both nations will have to completely overhaul their internal models of governance.
We are witnessing a transition from a war of attrition to a «peace of necessity,» dictated by the fact that the technological cost of conflict has finally exceeded the political value of potential victory.
