On May 5, an interesting event took place in Yerevan that appeared to many as merely a large-scale diplomatic show. However, the reality was far more intriguing and significant. In Armenia—a country that is a member of the CSTO and hosts Russian military bases and border guards—an impressive landing party of Western leaders arrived. Heads of state from the EU, Canada, and the United Kingdom all gathered there.
The situation looked paradoxical: Yerevan hosted leaders of states that are effectively waging a proxy war against Russia by supporting Ukraine. Moreover, the Prime Minister of Armenia signed a strategic partnership agreement with the United Kingdom—similar to the one London previously concluded with Kyiv.
An Informal Bloc on CSTO Territory
A new informal alliance essentially assembled in Armenia. Loud statements were made claiming that Yerevan has become «almost independent» from Moscow. French President Emmanuel Macron openly declared that Armenia is liberating itself from Russian influence and that it is time to develop relations and admit the country into the European Union.
All of this occurred against the backdrop of a profound economic, financial, and political crisis within Europe itself. The EU’s political elite is in a state of fever, and trust in old institutions is plummeting, yet Armenia stubbornly strives to head in that direction. Meanwhile, Nikol Pashinyan continues to fly to Moscow for meetings with Vladimir Putin. It is obvious that the summit in Yerevan was a subject of their discussion.
Many Russian experts and media figures are in a state of confusion. For example, Margarita Simonyan, head of Rossiya Segodnya, openly stated that Russia needs to deal harshly with what is happening in Armenia; otherwise, it will become an even greater problem for Putin’s successor.
The Era of Universal Testing
To understand the essence of these events, one must look deeper. I would call this process a global «testing.» The world is in a state of uncertainty, transitioning from one system to another. Massive civilizational macro-regions are forming, and it is not yet clear where their final borders will lie.
In this situation, everyone is testing everyone else:
- Small countries (Armenia, Georgia, Moldova) are trying to feel out which macro-region is more profitable to join.
- China is in no hurry; it acts cautiously but observes the West’s reaction intently.
- The USA (represented by Trump) is creating a climate of uncertainty, sometimes driving itself into a dead end, but attempting to emerge from it with maximum advantages.
- Russia is testing Pashinyan, its other neighbors, and the resilience of Europe.
For Vladimir Putin, with the mindset of an intelligence officer, this situation of «gathering information through provocation» is clear and familiar. He utilizes Pashinyan to try and calculate who is connected to whom and how to build the «Russian macro-region» while everything is in motion.
The Split in Western Civilization: King vs. Trump
The example of the Anglo-Saxon world is particularly interesting. The British King’s recent speech to the US Congress was a manifesto of unity: «We are one civilization, born of the Magna Carta.» The US Congress gave King Charles III a standing ovation. However, subsequent political events and actions by Washington showed that reality is more complex than it appeared in Congress.
The US and Europe are developing according to different scenarios. Donald Trump clearly demonstrates that America’s interests may radically diverge from European ones. The withdrawal of American troops from Spain and Germany, and the introduction of tariffs on German cars, are all signs of a possible split of the West into two distinct macro-regions.
The Americans—perhaps unintentionally—are pushing Europe toward independence. Statements about the non-deployment of Tomahawk missiles in Germany and the withdrawal of thousands of soldiers are a signal: «Develop your own defense industry and solve your problems with Russia yourselves.»
Europe may become an independent player, and it is precisely into its zone of influence that Ukraine and the Transcaucasian countries are trying to enter.
The Iran Factor and New Threats
We must not forget about regional players, including those in Asia. If Iran finally reclaims its status as a «warrior Persia,» where military might dominates over trade and business, the fate of Transcaucasia will change fundamentally. In the Far East, Kim Jong Un is also shaping the new borders of the Russian civilizational macro-region, declaring his readiness to support Russia in a war in Europe.
British Pragmatism and the Fate of Ukraine
Zelenskyy’s visit to Yerevan and his meetings with Western leaders reveal another important aspect. When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke about financial aid to Ukraine, he was primarily talking about supporting Britain’s own industry (e.g., steelmaking) and defense startups. Ukraine is being viewed as a testing ground for developing cybersecurity technologies, drones, lasers, and digital systems, the production of which will remain in the West.
Results of the Yerevan Show
Summarizing the visit of Zelenskyy and Western leaders to Armenia, three points stand out:
- Armenia continues its drift away from Russia toward Europe, using Ukraine as a link.
- Kyiv and Yerevan are beginning to work in close coordination, creating a new vector of pressure and threats on the southern borders of the Russian Federation.
- Europe is becoming an independent and more dangerous player for Russia.
The psychology of Western civilization is such that it always develops by advancing its interests and expanding into other territories if it senses a neighbor’s weakness. Europe sees signs of Russia’s fragmentation or weakness; therefore, it understands the inevitability of conflict escalation.
Right now, a test of strength is underway. The outcome of this «testing» will depend largely on internal factors—including whether Russia can prove its ability to change, modernize, and return to leading positions in the technological and information spheres, where revolutionary shifts are occurring that could change the vector of human development.
