The postponed Trump-Putin summit in Budapest to end the war in Europe, will take place in late November or early December. The main reason for postponing the summit was the inability of Putin and Zelenskyy to find a compromise that would satisfy both Russia and Ukraine.

Also playing a role was the West’s failure to understand the depth of the contradictions between the peoples of the two parts of the former Russian Empire and the USSR. These contradictions have acquired a civilizational character over the years of Ukraine’s independence.

The misunderstanding of the positions and goals of the negotiating partners, first in Moscow, where Witkoff met Putin, and then in Anchorage, where Putin met Trump, also had an impact. The negotiators said one thing but understood another, which is typical for representatives of Russian and Western civilizations.

Trump and Putin are not changing their goals. Trump wants to stop the war, transfer control over supplies of electricity, oil, and gas from Russia to Europe, along with processing, to American TNCs. Through the Investment Fund, Trump wants to gain control over Ukraine’s main natural resources, logistics, and economic potential and transfer the Fund to the management of the same TNCs through their European branches, and then attract corporations from Russia, China, India, and other countries as partners of the Fund.

Trump plans to finance the restoration of Ukraine, as is currently happening with military supplies, using Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves frozen in the West. The main amount is denominated in dollars, but in reality, a significant part of the reserves initially consists of gold, and the price of gold has tripled during the war and the freeze.

The dollar portion, under guarantees of non-use, was also largely converted into gold or invested, which increased its real value also by two to three times. Thus, the freezing of Russian assets during the war period yielded a profit of 500 to 800 billion dollars, which covers the main expenses of the US and the West.

Simultaneously, Trump seeks to agree with Putin on creating a new system for the development of American-Russian cooperation in the macro-region controlled by Russia, securing the interests of American TNCs in the North, the South Caucasus, Siberia, the Far East, and Central Asia, as well as on joint space exploration, where, since Soviet times, there are areas where Russia is ahead of the US.

Putin needs to achieve Ukraine’s neutrality, recognition of Moscow’s control over Donbas and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which at the time of signing the peace treaty will be under Moscow’s control, restoration of the rights of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population and the Russian Orthodox Church, and the exclusion of Ukrainian nationalism from Kyiv’s official policy.

Putin wants, through American TNCs, to resume supplies of oil and gas to Europe, restore, including through Trump’s fund, the positions of Russian corporations in Europe and Ukraine, and bring pro-Russian political forces back into Ukraine’s internal politics. For the Kremlin, this is sufficient, — at this stage.

A compromise between Trump and Putin is possible. However, Zelenskyy, relying on European leaders, retains the ability to block a peace agreement. Without his consent, the peace plan of Trump and Putin is impossible.

For all his steadfastness, Zelenskyy is changing his position, but so far, he has not changed it enough to accept Putin’s conditions. For example, Zelenskyy is already ready to stop the war along the line of contact and cede the territories captured by Russian troops to Moscow’s control, but he is not ready to recognize this as legitimate. If Zelenskyy now accepts Putin’s conditions and signs the corresponding treaty, it will be incredibly difficult for him to retain power and even his life.

Putin and Zelenskyy find themselves in a similar situation. Putin also cannot stop the war without achieving the declared goals. Putin’s inner circle, which controlled relations with Ukraine and the West, allowed and even contributed for too long to Ukraine’s movement from Russia towards the West, its transformation into a nationalist state. Now, in the consciousness of the Russian people, the entire blame for Ukraine falling under the control of the West and anti-Russian nationalists will fall on Putin. From a civilizational point of view, the Russian world would perceive the loss of Ukraine as a strategic defeat, unprecedented in Russian history since the 16th century.

Zelenskyy and Putin are politicians of the post-Soviet era, for whom to stand alongside Gorbachev and Yeltsin, the most unpopular, hated political leaders in the history of the post-Soviet space, accused by the vast majority of the population of the collapse of the Soviet Union, is the most terrible and shameful outcome of their political activity. Putin and Zelenskyy want to avoid this more than anything else in the world. They do not want to go down in history as akin to Gorbachev or Yeltsin. This is compounded by the personal hatred between Putin and Zelenskyy.

Trump understands this and sees a way out in having each of them declare themselves and their country the victors.

— «Let each declare their own victory,» — said Trump.

However, for this, it is necessary to create an appropriate situation, prepare their people to accept the treaty, and the inevitability and necessity of a new stage in the development of relations. And according to some reports, Trump and Putin have allocated a month to solve these tasks.

The task is being solved primarily on the front, where there is currently a sharp increase in the intensity of fighting: Russian troops capture between one and three settlements daily, and in the coming days will take the largest cities of Donbas, battles for which have been ongoing for many months: Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and in two or three weeks will take Siversk and Lyman.

Russian airstrikes are turning the Ukrainian cities on the left bank of Dnieper river, including Kyiv, into powerless residential areas devoid of transport systems, heating, and the possibility to live. Millions of Ukrainians will be forced to go West — or agree to sign a peace treaty. By stopping Putin, Zelenskyy would become the savior of Ukraine.

However, Putin’s main goal is to achieve the collapse of the front, to deprive the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the ability to hold the front across the entire territory of left-bank Ukraine. This will cause a split and confrontation between Zelenskyy and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In this situation, Ukraine will inevitably have to accept the conditions of Moscow and Trump.