Anchorage became the moment when the creation of a new world order was declared to the world, even though nothing was explicitly said about it. One could have turned off the TV sound and not listened to the speeches of Putin and Trump, or the media commentary and reports. The picture itself said it all.
In Anchorage, and then in Washington, nothing was said about any specific agreements between Trump and Putin, nor about the content of Trump’s conversation with Zelenskyy.
Trump’s current team differs from his previous Administration in several key parameters, including the fact that leaks from the White House are absolutely excluded. If secret negotiations are underway or plans are being developed that others should not know about, then information is released only to cover up the real content of the talks.
It is indicative that the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, has demanded that the American intelligence community not share any information about the Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations with the allies in the “Five Eyes” alliance.
Both events—the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska and the negotiations between Trump and Zelenskyy in the White House—are characterized by a high level of secrecy. Practically nothing specific is known about the content and agreements reached at these two meetings. And that speaks volumes.
However, secret agreements inevitably begin to shape subsequent events. Based on what has been happening in Washington, how events in Russian-American relations are developing, as well as around and inside Ukraine, one can assume that in Anchorage, final agreements were reached between Trump and Putin that a period of forming new relations and strategic cooperation between Russia and the US has begun.
Moreover, a Washington-Moscow axis is being built, and around this axis, their relations with China and other leading world powers will be structured.
This necessity is primarily dictated by the interests of the US. Russia has long sought this, but Trump has only now finally recognized Russia as an equal partner.
It is US interests that shape the agenda and the nature of the development of relations between Moscow and Washington, and these interests are concentrated in several areas:
US Economic Interests
The main direction in economics and finance is ensuring the fastest possible transition of the US to a new level of technological development, which makes energy and the distribution of energy resources a primary focus of foreign policy. The US must double domestic energy production within the next four years and reduce its cost. This is necessary for transitioning to a new technological level and maintaining leadership in science, AI, economics, and the military sphere.
This requires cooperation with Russia in several zones. First, the Arctic, which holds over 25% of the world’s resources and contains the shortest transport routes connecting the US, China, and the Pacific region with Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. In case of an escalation in the Red Sea and the Middle East—which is possible and expected—the Arctic will become the main transport and energy corridor, and there, the US and Russia become the main operators.
In fact, the Arctic is turning into an internal zone of American-Russian cooperation, where China, India, and other countries can participate as secondary investors in projects and users of infrastructure.
For the US, cooperation with Russia in the Arctic is a priority, including because, firstly, only Russian oil and gas companies have the technology and experience of working, drilling, and extracting resources in the permafrost zone, and secondly, China and India, and Arab countries are now entering the Russian Arctic zone at an accelerated pace.
The US cannot waste time. Therefore, US-Russian joint ventures are currently being created to work in the Arctic, both in Russia and the US, and the largest US companies, including EXXON-MOBIL, and Russian state corporations Rosneft and Gazprom are participating in the creation of these joint ventures.
The second priority for the US is the development of cooperation with Russian corporations in Russia itself, primarily in Siberia and the Far East, where enormous resources are also concentrated and where China, India, the UAE, and other countries are already prepared to actively increase their presence.
American multinational corporations in the 1990s decided to limit their presence in Russia due to corruption conflicts and to develop their production capacities in China, which became the main driver of the Chinese economy’s development. Now, US corporations are forced to limit their productive activity in China. The priority development zones have become the US itself, and outside the US, Russia now has the greatest potential for development, where Putin guarantees Trump a most favored nation regime.
In particular, Russia has agreed to the participation of US corporations in the development of transport infrastructure on its territory. This infrastructure connects China, Japan, and Southeast Asia by land with Europe, with access to the Middle East and North Africa. Participation in Russia’s transport and production projects will allow the US—within the limits permitted by Moscow, of course—to influence the situation from the borders of the USA and China in the North and East, to the Atlantic.
In this situation, there can be no talk of any significant sanctions against Russia from the United States.
The South Caucasus has become an important zone for the US, where it seeks to gain control over the Zangezur Corridor, connecting Turkey and the Middle East with the Caspian region and Central Asia, as well as Iran. A corresponding protocol was recently signed in Washington between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Control over Zangezur, as believed in Washington, will allow the US to control economic flows and the struggle for dominance in the Middle and Central Asia, where the main contenders for leadership are Israel, Iran, and Turkey.
Russia is not openly resisting these plans for several reasons.
First, for Russia, relations with the US are now a priority, and Moscow’s neutrality regarding, for example, Zangezur, can be “sold” to Washington to Moscow’s benefit.
Second, this is a zone where Iran will resist the growing influence of the US, Israel, and Turkey, so Russia can relax and “watch from the sidelines” for a while.
Third, Russia retains strategically crucial footholds in the South Caucasus: Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and a military base in Armenia, and that allows it to control all transport and energy flows through the South Caucasus and to quickly increase its presence if necessary.
At the same time, Moscow does not view the South Caucasus as a potential region for rapid economic development and understands that political instability and conflicts will increase there in the coming decade, creating problems for the US, Turkey, and Iran. And the peoples of the South Caucasus will not be able to emerge from the period of escalation, conflicts, and instability without Russia. History repeats itself and will repeat itself, and the Georgians, Armenians, and Azerbaijanis will again turn to Russia so that Moscow can provide them with stability and security.
Africa will be an important region for economic development in the 21st century, and Russia, China, and India are increasing their presence and influence there. A special stage began with the appearance of Wagner Group units in Africa and the active displacement of European countries. The Wagner project was derailed by the clan that led the Russian Ministry of Defense until 2024, but after the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, Russia will not only be able to but will be forced to launch the “Wagner-2” project, most probably in cooperation with other countries. In this situation, Washington needs to find a way to interact and cooperate with Russia in Africa.
A special direction for the development of science, communications, the economy and the military sphere is space. NASA and American space corporations are interested in developing cooperation with Russia in space, including in the creation of nuclear energy beyond Earth, where Russia has established a leadership position. The USSR worked on these developments since the mid-1980s, and now Russia is ready to make a qualitative leap.
After Ukraine signed an agreement to create the US-Ukrainian investment fund, the US gained the opportunity to take control in Ukraine not only of its energy production, agricultural products, and transport infrastructure, including seaports, but also the supply of energy, gas, oil, ammonia, and mineral fertilizers from Russia through Ukraine to Europe, China, the Middle East, and Africa. And Russia is showing its readiness to become a partner for the American fund not only in supplies but also in infrastructure development in Ukraine, naturally, in the post-war period.
International relations
New technologies are creating types of weaponry that are much more effective than modern weapons and military equipment. At this new level of development, the arms race threatens to get out of control. This is understood in Moscow, Washington, and Beijing alike.
However, effective control of the arms race and ensuring security guarantees are impossible under conditions of confrontation, let alone war—even a regional one fought using proxies. Security guarantees can only be based on trust, cooperation in critical industries, and deeply integrated partnership.
Of particular importance is the treaty on the reduction of strategic offensive weapons. The existing START-3 treaty will cease to be effective in February 2026. In the conditions of the war in Ukraine, the treaty is no longer working. The conclusion of a new treaty between the United States and Russia is a vital necessity.
An equally significant threat to the United States is the consolidation of the BRICS group and its transformation into a political, economic, and military alliance aimed against the West.
Within BRICS, the main economic and financial centres are becoming China, India, and Russia, with Russia specifically serving as the military power. A bloc of rapidly developing countries is gathering around the founding members of BRICS. This bloc currently consists of 10 states, some of which aspire to regional leadership, including Iran, South Africa, Brazil, and Indonesia. Through Russia and China, the DPRK (North Korea) also acts as a combat detachment for BRICS. All of this poses strategic threats to the United States and its allies.
Trump must urgently halt the consolidation of BRICS, suspend its development into a political union, and prevent its transformation into a military bloc.
This could be achieved by creating a new major league, that would initially include the US, Russia, China and India. This would allow the US to develop separate relationships with each member of the Group of Four, playing out separate games as part of the Great Game, and would create a division between the three BRICS leaders and the rest of the group, thus slowing down the unification process.
All of this needs to be prepared and agreed upon before the September 3 meeting in Beijing of the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states. Beijing will host the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. It will be a summit where Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi will discuss the new world order. Trump will have the opportunity to join them and turn the tables by chairing the first meeting of the Big Four leaders.
War in Ukraine
However, there is one obstacle to all these plans that hinders all participants of the Great Game. And this obstacle is the war in Ukraine. That is why Trump and Putin agreed during the summit in Anchorage to end the war and cease hostilities in Ukraine.
Moreover, this should be a peace agreement that excludes the resumption of the conflict, and not a temporary ceasefire, which can be used by any party to the conflict as a weapon of blackmail and pressure on all those who need peace in Ukraine and Europe, and in the current situation, on the United States and Russia first of all. Trump and Putin understand that a temporary truce and the threat of its disruption will become a weapon of blackmail in the hands of Zelensky.
Putin has no way to resolve the issue with Zelensky directly. Zelensky came to power and was elected as a president of peace and a pro-Russian politician, but created Ukraine as “Anti-Russia”. He has repeatedly refused to make agreements with Putin, in particular, to implement the agreements reached in Minsk and Istanbul, which was perceived in Russia as an outright deception.
Moreover, for personal reasons, Putin will be unable to deal with Zelenskyy as a politician of equal stature. Zelenskyy has openly insulted Putin in the media the way for which people in Russia are not only beaten but killed. To deal with Zelensky would become an unacceptable humiliation for Putin. He can only engage with Zelenskyy after Zelenskyy acknowledges his defeat and agrees to the Kremlin’s terms.
Furthermore, this is compounded by the illegitimacy of Zelenskyy, who has not held elections in Ukraine, including for the presidency, citing the ongoing hostilities, which contradicts the constitution and legislation of Ukraine.
However, Zelensky remains in power in Kyiv, and he holds power firmly in his hands. Therefore, the most important factors in solving the Ukrainian problem are Zelensky’s unwillingness to admit the loss of territory and the inevitability of Ukraine’s defeat, as well as the firm support of some European states, primarily Great Britain, Germany, France and Italy, for Ukraine’s struggle with Russia.
In this situation, only Trump could resolve the problem with Zelensky and ensure his agreement to end the war on terms acceptable to Russia and the United States. It was the agreement that Trump would take on the solution to the problem with Zelensky and European leaders who support the continuation of military action that was one of the most important results of the Anchorage summit.
Based on how events unfolded in Washington during Trump’s negotiations with Zelensky, and then with the European leaders who arrived in the White House to support Zelensky, in Anchorage Trump and Putin developed two options for solving the “Zelensky problem”:
- Option One. Trump convinces Zelensky and achieves, using all means, including the available compromising information on Zelensky and his entourage, Zelensky’s voluntary agreement to end resistance and military action. Zelensky agrees to revise the political course and restore relations with Russia, return the property and rights of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. He restores the rights of the Russian-speaking population. Zelensky agrees to an exchange of territories and gives Russia part of the Donetsk region, which is still under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, receiving in exchange the territories of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, as well as other regions where the territories will end up under the control of the Russian army, and agrees to the division of Ukraine along the line of military action. And most importantly, Zelensky must agree to hold elections and release his opponents from prison.
This option was initially considered unlikely by Washington and impossible by Moscow, but judging by the behaviour of Trump and Zelensky in Washington, Trump attempted to pressure Zelensky into agreeing to the conditions put forward, but Zelensky refused and was able to convince Trump that it was impossible for him to accept this option.
The impossibility of this option is explained by several reasons, but most importantly, by the threats that this scenario poses to Zelensky personally, his inner circle, and the Jews of Ukraine. If Zelensky were to accept these conditions, he would be immediately overthrown and destroyed by right-wing radical nationalists, and a wave of pogroms would sweep across Ukraine. And Trump apparently understood this during his conversation with Zelensky.
- Option Two. Zelensky, for internal Ukrainian political reasons and threats to his security, refuses to officially change the political course and hand over the Donbass territories to Russia. He continues military actions, but agrees to act in a coordinated manner, in contact with the United States, in accordance with secret agreements.
At the same time, Trump and Putin guarantee his personal safety and the protection of the interests of his inner circle.
Europe provides support to Ukraine, pays for the supply of weapons, including from the US, in the amount of up to 100 billion dollars, takes on economic, humanitarian and political responsibility for the consequences of the continuation of the war. The United States not just leaves the war, but begins to actively develop cooperation with Russia outside of Ukraine.
Russia is able to intensify the fighting, using its superiority in military force, advancing across Ukraine and damaging the nationalist formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reducing their influence and threats to Zelensky.
At the same time, Russia does not strike at objects that are of particular interest to the American-Ukrainian Fund, which is beginning its work on the territory of Ukraine.
Russia and the United States are publishing information in the media about the real losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the situation at the front, and corruption in Ukraine, while limiting information directed against Zelensky personally.
This explains the leak of documents from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which appeared in the media a day after Zelensky refused to accept Russia’s conditions, according to which the loss of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the war in killed and missing persons has already amounted to over 1.7 million servicemen.
Two Ukrainian former military, GRU officers, were also arrested in Poland and Italy, and accused of participating in the destroying of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. This is a blow not only to Ukraine and its relations with Europe, but also a blow to Biden and the US Democrats. At the same time, according to Ukrainian media, the head of the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), Lieutenant General Jeffrey Cruz, was fired, as well as two US Navy admirals responsible for maritime special operations.
This also indicates that the US and Russia have agreed to launch and jointly operate gas pipelines from Russia to Europe, including Nord Stream, and that will sharply reduce support for Ukraine in Europe.
As a result of the fighting and losses at the front, including losses of territories, an agreement to end the war will be perceived as inevitable in Ukraine. After that, Zelensky will announce the end of the war and the presidential elections.
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It looks as if the Option Two is currently being implemented. However, this does not mean that events will develop exactly as Trump and Putin agreed, because Zelensky has his own version of his and Ukraine’s future.
Zelensky’s option: Ukraine, relying on European support, increases its resistance to Russia and strikes back at such a force on the territory of Russia, inflicting such losses on the economy that they cause a sharp explosion of discontent in Russia, forcing Putin to agree to stop the war along the front lines without additional territories.
Elections in Ukraine are being held under the control of Kyiv and European countries, and that makes it possible to exclude the active participation and victory of pro-Russian opponents of Zelensky.
The most likely rivals in the elections for Zelensky are considered to be the military, including the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov, the leader of the ultra-nationalists and their military units, including Azov, Biletsky, and the former commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny.
Losses at the front, destruction of infrastructure will allow Zelensky to reduce support for the military among voters and win the elections. After the elections, Zelensky will receive support in Europe, which will allow him to achieve Ukraine’s accession to the EU or conclude an agreement that will provide financial and economic support to Ukraine for the coming years.
