On June 23, 2023, a coup d’etat began in Russia that will end within 48 hours. As a result of this coup d’état, the state system in Russia will be changed.
There are variants:
- Complete change in the ruling elite and the system of state administration and the formation of a new ruling elite comprised of the military officers brought up and educated in Soviet times, the core of the PMC “Wagner”, and their followers in the Federal Service of Guards, the FSB and the SVR, business leaders of the new technological order, as well as regional elites not associated with current oligarchic clans.
- The establishment of dictatorship by the group that includes the now ruling clans in the Federal Service of Guards, the FSB, the SVR and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the RF.
Vladimir Putin will lose power anyway. More precisely, he had already lost it when he allowed the conflict between Prigozhin and Shoigu, the Wagner PMC and the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, to spill out into the Russian and world media, and then, growing and becoming fierce, develop into armed confrontation.
All that happened during the war that Russia was unnecessarily drawn into, through intrigue and the use of influence groups that “triggered” Putin to turn Russia into aggressor and start the “Ukrainian meat grinder”, and that in recent months brought Putin closer to decision to use nuclear tactical weapons that would turn Russia into rogue state.
Putin’s main mistake was that during the war, at the time when all contradictions and conflicts escalated, he continued to maintain his policy of «balancing» the clans, trying to stay above conflicts and intra-clan struggle as «Referee». However, during the war, the people and the state do not need any referee. They need Center of power and control, that is unified and concentrated on the main goal — victory in the war.
The Moscow Kremlin under Putin has ceased to be such Center of Power and Force. As in peacetime, the Kremlin remained divided into «Towers», clans and groups that promoted and defended interests of not the people and the country, but their own, personal and clan interests.
The divided Center of the System leads to inevitable split in the System itself. That is what happened in the spring of 2023 and resulted in coup d’état on June 23.
Putin announced his final removal from power the same day, in the morning, speaking to the Russian people on television. He called on everyone to «rally» around himself and the ruling clans, but refused to acknowledge the existence of systemic crisis in the country and to take decisive measures to eliminate the causes of this crisis.
The head of state, who refuses to solve the main problems of the state, who withdraws from identifying contradictions and problems and does not try to solve them, including removing from the leadership politicians and bureaucrats, who are not accepted by the people, rejected by the people, who do not understand and do not recognize that corruption and theft are unacceptable in peacetime, but especially in wartime, — this head of state, despite being elected by the people, loses the right to leadership and his post.
On the morning of June 23, Putin lost his right to rule in the Kremlin. And this corresponds to the historical and political traditions of Russian civilization. The coup d’état was legitimized by Vladimir Putin himself.