By striking strategic bombers at airfields deep inside Russia, Zelensky changed not only the course of the war in Ukraine, but also the tactics and strategy of modern warfare. In fact, he turned war upside down, fundamentally changed it as a system of interactions, fighting the enemy with the aim of defeating and destroying him. But he did more than that.
Zelensky tried to disrupt and break the entire “four-handed game” that Trump and Putin had been playing for six months. Trump and Putin were silent for three days, and their silence spoke louder than the statements of their “talking heads” and politicians in the US, Europe, and Russia.
It is likely that Zelensky personally was neither the main author of this operation nor its executor, but without his active participation the final decision to carry out the operation could not have been made.
The attack on Russia’s nuclear triad, even if it is not its most important or powerful component, and rather backward part with delayed modernization, on five airfields of Russia’s strategic aviation, scattered across the territory at a distance of over five thousand kilometres from each other, entailed the most important consequences for the entire world.
There are several consequences of the attack that should be noted:
- The attack was not a terrorist act, but a military operation. This means that modern technologies, means of communication and control, delivery of military equipment, including drones, and the work of operators at a distance of thousands of kilometres make the entire territory of the warring countries a front and combat zone.
- Any object of strategically important infrastructure, both civil and military, can be attacked and destroyed, including command posts, warehouses, airfields, energy and transport facilities, places where equipment and people are concentrated, regardless of its location, on the territory of any country, and that raised the level of potential military and terrorist threats to a level unprecedented in history.
- Distances, oceans, and the absence of common borders no longer protect countries that are at war or are under terrorist threat from large-scale attacks on their strategic facilities and population. A sea vessel, train, or airliner on its way or in any port, or at anchor, or at a railway station, can be attacked, and that puts the entire insurance system in a crisis.
- Covering the territory with satellite communications by a hostile state has become a strategic and constant threat.
- Combat operations can be organized and conducted, and weapons produced and delivered by and from any country in the world, including those that do not have common borders and are not directly involved in the conflict.
However, for Putin and Trump personally, the most unpleasant about the SBU attack on Russia’s strategic airfields were three circumstances:
First. Russian pro-government media attempted to explain the failure to protect its strategic bombers at the airfields by saying that the strategic aircraft were outside their shelters in accordance with the terms of the US-Russian Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). In February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in inspection procedures and stopped exchanging data on its nuclear arsenal, but continues to comply with the treaty, including by placing strategic bombers on open parking lots and allowing the US to inspect their numbers and condition.
This verification is carried out by US military satellites, but is also possible using the Starlink satellite network, that, according to Russian intelligence, was used to carry out strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian bombers.
The drones were operated through secure communications channels, and that would have been impossible without the involvement of US intelligence or that of its major NATO allies. The Kremlin refused to make formal accusations, but showed that it was convinced that US and NATO personnel, were involved in the attack.
Important questions immediately arose in the Kremlin, and the main one: did Trump know about the impending attack? If he knew and gave permission, then this completely undermined the foundation on which Putin and Trump built their relationship and created a new partnership between the two superpowers.
According to statements first from the White House and then from Donald Trump personally, the US President was not informed about the planned attack. However, the following unpleasant questions arose in the Kremlin:
If the operation was approved by Biden or his inner circle, then why wasn’t the operation stopped and cancelled after the Trump team came to power and took a course to improve US-Russian relations? How could the new heads of the CIA and the Pentagon, members of the Trump team, approve strikes on Russia’s strategic aviation without notifying the US President and without receiving his permission?
If the heads of the CIA and the Pentagon were not informed by their own employees about the attack that could have escalated into a nuclear conflict, then how much control does Trump’s team have over the Pentagon, the CIA, NATO intelligence, the SBU, and Zelensky himself?
Which of the Western European leaders gave consent to the strike on Russia’s nuclear triad and why was it done without coordination with Washington?
Urgent closed negotiations were started, and Moscow demanded clarification of positions. And these negotiations and clarification of the situation took three days. On June 4, Trump and Putin discussed the situation by phone, clarified the situation and agreed on further actions.
They did not give details, but Trump informed allies and the public that Russia would strike back. In effect, Trump confirmed that the strike had been agreed upon with him, and has to be significant. A peace treaty and a truce were temporarily off the agenda.
At the same time, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Ryabkov stated that “Russia demands a clear response from the US and Britain to Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s strategic aviation in order to prevent further escalation.” This means that from now on, Moscow considers Great Britain to be the supervisor of Zelensky’s regime from Europe, and it is London that will be responsible for Kiev’s further actions. This position was confirmed by official Russian media, which openly accused British intelligence services of participating in the operation.
Vladimir Putin, without commenting on the attack on strategic bombers, but reacting to the blowing up of two railway and road bridges on the internal territory of Russia, stated that Zelensky is turning Ukraine into a terrorist state: “What can we talk about in these conditions? Who negotiates with terrorists anyway?”
In fact, Putin announced the end of the negotiation process at the governmental, working level. Now contacts and negotiations will be conducted only on humanitarian issues: the exchange of prisoners, bodies of the killed, the search for missing children that Moscow completely denies, accusing Kyiv of deceiving the world community.
The Kremlin will now emphatically fight the Zelensky regime, separating it from the rest of the Ukrainian people, pursuing a policy aimed at splitting the Ukrainian elites and isolating Zelensky and his clan. Russian media openly say that the guarantee of Zelensky’s personal safety, that Putin gave at the beginning of the special operation in 2022, has been withdrawn and the destruction of Zelensky and his close allies is now possible.
Second. The attack has caused great indignation in Russia, especially among the military. Putin and the Kremlin cannot leave Zelensky’s actions without response. Moreover, Putin must make the response very painful for Zelensky’s team and for those European leaders and countries that took part in this operation, but this response from Russia should not disrupt the negotiation process between Moscow and Washington. This is what Putin agreed on with Trump.
If the response is weak, then irritation and criticism of Putin will grow in Russian public opinion, especially among the military and patriotic sections of the population. Demands for a change of regime, elites and the system of government itself will grow, and it will be increasingly difficult for the current leadership to control political situation.
Third. Although the agreement between Russia and the United States did provide for the possibility of checking the status of nuclear weapons carriers, there was no clear prohibition on hiding aircraft in wartime.
The Russian military and the public have long demanded construction of hangars and protective structures at airfields. The decision to build shelters was made by the Kremlin, the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff long ago, and work was underway. However, there was no clear plan, and funding, minimal compared to the cost of even one strategic bomber, was delayed, deadlines and volumes for this work were constantly changing and disrupted. Moreover, criminal cases had already been opened for corruption during the construction of shelters for bombers.
The attack by Ukrainians using drones on airfields deep in Russian territory did not come as a surprise. Bloggers and military analysts in Russia have been writing about the possibility of this type of terrorist attack for several months now. The airfields that were attacked on June 1 were named as possible targets. However, no special measures were taken to protect against drone attacks at these airfields.
Such laxity, unwillingness to do anything without a clear order or direction from above, from the Kremlin, has long been a characteristic feature of Putin’s Russia. The system is built on principles that allow the ruling clans to block any initiative from below, to concentrate resources on areas and projects that are advantageous to these clans, while demonstrating their readiness to carry out any specific order from the Kremlin.
During the war in Ukraine, starting from the decision to begin the invasion of Ukraine, or more precisely, from the moment Putin was given false justifications for making this decision, the events have regularly occurred that were the result of erroneous personnel and organizational decisions, and it is difficult to explain these decisions by laxness alone.
Military bloggers and correspondents express the opinion that there was betrayal in the upper echelons of power, and that someone is actively setting up Putin personally.
All these circumstances have forced the Kremlin to transfer the whole territory of Russia to a wartime regime, to end the negotiation process at the political level between Kiev and Moscow, and to try to end the war as quickly as possible.
Trump is withdrawing from the “Ukrainian case” and transferring the costs and responsibility for Ukraine to Europe.
A clear signal was sent to Kyiv by announcing a sovereign default on Ukraine on June 4, the very day of the arrival of Zelensky’s office chief Yermak in Washington. The default Kyiv did not expect at all, and it could not have happened without a direct order from Trump and the leaders of the US financial bloc.
Moreover, independent Ukrainian bloggers and analysts reported that Yermak was not just reprimanded by Rubio and the White House, but was warned that investigations would be launched against Zelensky and his entourage for corruption and theft of money and weapons allocated by the United States under Biden. A group of inspectors has already started working in Ukraine. Zelensky can only be saved by unconditional fulfilment of the agreements on the investment fund, the management structures of which have already been formed.
Washington will now be a neutral observer, focusing on economic projects in Ukraine, where the investment fund is becoming the main representative of the United States. Trump will be ready to reconsider his position only after Moscow and Kyiv declare the end of the war. And the time is running out for them, as well as for Trump…
