(from the series “Trump’s America and the New World Order”, part 11)
In Paris, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio conveyed to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak Washington’s demand for an end to hostilities and a ceasefire in Ukraine, as well as the signing of the Rare Earth Metals Agreement. “Rubio’s ultimatum” can be put in the list of Trump’s actions that had the strongest impact on the development of the situation in the world. Such actions include:
– Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, that launched the process of normalizing relations between Washington and Moscow that put most of the European countries in opposition to Trump, but made the end of the war in Ukraine in 2025 almost inevitable;
– Trump’s assumption of the role of leader in the formation of a new world order, that increased Washington’s influence on international relations;
– Trump’s appointment of American companies in the high-tech manufacturing sector, primarily transnational corporations, as fundamental and system-forming subjects in the global economy, that made the US political and state structures and organizations, scientific and military complexes, financial and banking sectors subordinate to the interests of the high-tech manufacturing Corporations, and promoted business representatives to leading roles in international diplomacy; that initiated changes in the global financial system and reduced the role of political and government bureaucracy;
– Trump’s decision to appoint Russia as the main partner in the formation of a new system of world relations, and that led, on the one hand, to the strengthening of Russia’s and BRICS’ position, and on the other hand, to the weakening of the position of the EU and other strategic allies of the United States on the world stage;
– the creation by Washington of the American civilizational macro-region, in which Trump and his team intend to include Panama, Mexico, Greenland and Canada, as well as territories rich in oil and gas, disputed by Venezuela, Colombia and Guyana; this decision further distanced Europe from Washington, strengthened the trend in European political elites for self-reliance and independence from the US, raised the question of creating a European civilizational macro-region, but at the same time increased the contradictions and divisions among European countries and elite groups;
– Trump’s attempt to reduce the national debt and solve the US financial problems by introducing tariffs and strengthening the influence and role in the world economy of transnational corporations that have the ability to bypass the tariffs introduced by Trump, using their internal structures and financial interaction systems; Trump’s tariffs put the high-tech and energy sectors in a privileged position, but force them to create new production primarily on the territory of the US.
“Rubio ultimatum” was put forward not only to Kyiv, but also to Paris, London and Brussels:
Make peace with Russia and deal with your economic and financial problems, or remain at war with Russia, without the participation of the United States, while Washington and Moscow continue to negotiate without taking into account the interests of Europe.
The fact that Rubio had to issue his ultimatum not only to Kyiv but also to Europe allowed France and Great Britain to become direct participants in the negotiation process that had previously been limited to the Washington-Moscow-Kyiv triangle. Moreover, it is now Europe that has begun to play the role of the main negotiator. At this point, the fate of Ukraine and the war depends on the decision by the European leaders.
Russia stood aside from the Paris meeting, but the “Rubio’s ultimatum” was most likely agreed with the Kremlin, and was expected by Moscow. This was expressed in Putin’s announcement of the Easter truce in Ukraine, that became a symbol of Moscow’s support for Washington’s actions.
If Rubio’s ultimatum is rejected in London by Europe and Ukraine, it will sharply increase the contradictions within NATO and could trigger a financial, economic, and then political crisis in Europe.
It will be difficult to convince Rubio and Trump to abandon the ultimatum and continue to support Zelensky and European allies in their war with Russia, since Trump’s choice is very limited.
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What is pushing Trump to restore relations with Putin? Why is Trump in a hurry to stop the war in Ukraine? What is forcing him to rush and compromise with Russia at the expense of Ukraine?
Many European media and politicians respond to these questions by mocking Trump or accusing him of promising American voters to stop the war “in one day,” then to stop the war “very quickly” … At the end of April, Trump’s first hundred days in office will end, and “he will be forced to admit his next failure” – these are the answers given by Trump’s critics and opponents in the US and Europe.
However, Trump’s policies and all his actions are determined primarily by economic factors, and these factors force him to end the war in Ukraine and compromise, even to the point of partnership with Russia.
There are few factors that play a major role:
- The United States is the world’s largest producer of natural gas and oil. U.S. oil and gas production reached record levels in 2024, but has slowed down and stalled. Trump’s ” Drill, Baby, Drill!” is not working. The United States is the world’s second-largest oil importer after China, and oil imports are growing rapidly.
Oil and gas production in the United States is becoming more complex and expensive, oil companies’ accounts payable to banks are growing, and that increase the cost of oil, gas and petroleum product production.
However, the transition to a new technological level of the US economy, including the defence and industries based on robotics and artificial intelligence, vital for maintaining the global technological, economic and military leadership of the United States, according to experts, will require America to nearly double its electricity production by 2030 and reduce its cost.
Analytical forecasts from the US Department of Energy confirm the high probability of a reduction in oil and gas production in the US in the coming years, as well as the production of petroleum products and LNG.
In this situation, Trump is forced to take urgent measures, including:
– to integrate Canada, Greenland and part of South America, primarily the Panama Canal and the oil fields that Venezuela and Guyana are disputing, into a single political and economic zone under the direct control of Washington, and to increase the US-controlled oil and gas reserves, as well as energy capacity and logistics systems – this is precisely one of the factors pushing Trump to create American macro-region;
– to take control of the supply of gas, oil products and electricity from Russia and Ukraine to Europe, including the Nord Streams, gas and oil pipelines on the territory of Ukraine, buying gas and oil products at domestic Russian prices and selling them in Europe at world prices – this is precisely why it is necessary to stop military actions in Ukraine or withdraw the necessary infrastructure in Ukraine from the combat zone;
– to launch energy projects in Russia and the Arctic, including the modernization of energy and heat supply systems in Russia, especially those that have not been modernized since Soviet times; modernization could lead to a multiple reduction in costs and a significant reduction in the consumption of gas and oil products, for example, in the housing and utilities system, that will allow to increase the supply of energy resources from Russia to Europe, South and Southeast Asia without increasing production;
– to participate in the creation of new oil and gas pipelines from Russia to South Asia and China, that will enable American companies to become exporters of Russian energy resources to Asian countries, including India and China;
– remove the threat of war between Iran and Israel, secure the production and transportation of petroleum products from the Middle East and provide Iran with the opportunity to increase its export of oil, that will reduce world prices and will allow American corporations to take part of these supplies under control and to ensure the growth of cheap imports of petroleum products to the United States.
2. Ending the war in Ukraine is possible only if the strategic interests of Moscow, Kyiv and Washington are ensured, including the interests of American transnational corporations.
An understanding has been reached between Washington and Moscow, and opportunities for compromise have been found. For this purpose, a new model is being created that is capable of guaranteeing the protection of the strategic interests of the United States and Russia, as well as Europe, China and India and other participants in projects in Ukraine.
It is for this purpose that Washington demands that Kyiv sign the Strategic Partnership Agreement, which Trump initially called the Rare Earth Metals Agreement, and the creation of the Reconstruction and Investment Fund. The Memorandum was signed by Rubio in Paris.
It is the Reconstruction and Investment Fund that Trump views as a model, the main instrument for ensuring a balance of strategic interests of the United States, Russia, Europe and other countries, including China and India, as well as Ukraine itself. It is around the Fund that negotiations are being conducted between Witkoff and Yermak, as well as between Witkoff and Dmitriev.
It is assumed that the Fund will be given control over mineral deposits, as well as major energy facilities on the territory of Ukraine, including power plants, gas and oil pipelines, power grids, transport and logistics hubs, including ports that ensure the export of energy, resources and minerals from Ukraine or through the territory of Ukraine from Russia.
The Fund will be registered in the United States, in the state of Delaware, and the main consequence of this will be the extension of US jurisdiction to all Ukrainian facilities and deposits that will be managed by the Fund.
Thus, in Ukraine, a significant part of the natural resources and the Ukrainian economy, as well as business activities, including the foreign companies that will participate in projects in Ukraine, including Russian or Chinese companies and corporations, will be under the jurisdiction of the United States and the US law enforcement agencies.
Any crime, including corruption, committed by Ukrainians, will be investigated by the FBI and US prosecutors and tried in a US court under US laws. Also, all disputes, claims and crimes related to the affairs of the Fund committed by companies, organizations and individuals of the EU, UK, Russia or China, at the facilities controlled by the Fund, will be tried in US court.
However, this does not exempt the Fund and the companies that will participate in its work from liability under the laws of Ukraine. Moreover, over time, the Fund may conclude special partnership agreements with Russia, China and the EU, and representatives of these countries may join the Fund, and that will ensure the integration and interaction of the jurisdictions of several states.
In fact, Ukraine can become a zone of interaction of several civilizational macro-regions, primarily American, Russian and European, if European countries follow the path of forming an independent macro-region and do not reject Rubio’s ultimatum.
(To be continued)
