By Valery Morozov
By starting a war with Iran, Donald Trump has made a catastrophic error, and his subsequent actions suggest a continuing pattern of miscalculation that is pushing the United States and the global economy toward the abyss. What truly astonishes observers in the Kremlin—and has become a subject of intense discussion among Russian politicians and political scientists—is that Trump and his supporters, including Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, have utterly failed to learn from the strategic blunders Vladimir Putin made during his invasion of Ukraine. Trump is not just making new mistakes; he is repeating old ones on a larger scale.
Here are the three fatal mistakes that define Trump’s failed Iran policy.
Mistake One: Casting the U.S. as the Aggressor
Trump’s primary and most damaging error was made in the very first days of the conflict. Accustomed to being the leader, he positioned himself and the United States as the primary instigator of the war against Iran. In doing so, he relegated Israel and Netanyahu—the war’s actual instigators—to the role of a junior ally in what Moscow has already dubbed the «Epstein coalition.»
This is a direct mirror of Putin’s fatal blunder in Ukraine. By launching a full-scale invasion, Putin made Russia the undisputed aggressor in the eyes of the world. This single act transformed Volodymyr Zelensky, then Ukraine’s most unpopular president, into a globally celebrated symbol of resistance and earned his nation immense international support. Trump has now done the same for himself and the U.S., allowing the true architect of the conflict, Netanyahu, to fade into the background while America bears the brunt of global condemnation. Compounding this, Trump appears to have launched this war without fully calculating the consequences. The idea that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz—thereby cutting off 20% of the world’s traded oil and gas—seems not to have been considered. This stunning lack of foresight from the White House has shocked even America’s allies.
Mistake Two: Uniting the Enemy
The second fatal mistake was the decision to target Iran’s leadership directly, including the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and his family, along with other key figures. Trump and Netanyahu seemingly failed to grasp a fundamental civilizational reality: Iran is an ancient and proud power. The cascade of attacks on Tehran and other cities did not trigger a popular uprising against the regime. It did not empower those seeking a more democratic, less religious Iran. Instead, it ignited a surge of nationalist anger, patriotism, and a unified desire for revenge.
Once again, Trump has repeated Putin’s error. The Kremlin’s invasion was partly intended to suppress Ukrainian nationalism. In reality, it supercharged it, uniting a diverse nation against a common external foe. Trump has achieved the same effect in Iran, consolidating the population behind a regime that, until recently, faced significant internal dissent.
Mistake Three: Courting a Shocking Military Defeat
The third fatal mistake is trusting military advisers who are pushing for a ground invasion. The decision to deploy thousands of U.S. Marines to the Persian Gulf strongly suggests that a ground operation is imminent. This is a catastrophic gamble.
The U.S. Army, like its allies, is not prepared for a war at the new technological and operational level required in modern combat. The war in Ukraine has proven that the Ukrainian army, forged in battle, is better adapted to this new reality than any Western or Israeli force. This is precisely why Ukrainian units are being drawn into the U.S.-Israeli coalition.
This move has two disastrous consequences. First, it expands the conflict, turning Ukraine into a theatre for two simultaneous wars. Second, by aligning Kyiv so closely with Washington and Tel Aviv, it makes Ukrainians a target for the broader Islamic world. This could unleash immense problems for the millions of Ukrainian refugees across the Middle East and beyond, transforming them from victims of aggression into targets of religious and political reprisal.
By launching a ground war he is unprepared to win, Trump risks a defeat so shocking it would dwarf any past American military humiliation.
A Self-Inflicted Catastrophe
Ultimately, Trump has ignited a fire that is engulfing the entire Middle East. This war is dealing a devastating blow to the global economy and financial system. It has deprived key U.S. allies like Japan, South Korea, and India of their primary energy sources. Now, these nations are being forced to buy Russian oil, paying not in dollars, but in yuan. In his drive to destroy Iran, Trump has inadvertently dealt a severe blow to the petrodollar system, strengthened Russia, and created a multi-front crisis the world is ill-equipped to handle. The Kremlin is shocked not by the aggression, but by the fact that Washington, having witnessed Russia’s painful lessons, failed to learn a single one.
