Over the past three years, fundamental changes have occurred in the balance of power and the system of interaction between states and unions on the world stage. The new world order has not yet been formed, but the old world order is already in the past.
China and Russia began to talk about a new world order four years ago, and first, their initiative was ignored and then rejected by the United States and its allies. Now everyone, including Washington, has acknowledged that the old order is gone.
The world is currently in the transitional stage, and basic principles and laws of the new world order are being actively developed. This process was initiated by Russia and China, and they were quickly supported by India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iran and almost thirty other countries.
These countries formed BRICS+ that started actively developing new rules and laws, but without participation of the West, BRICS+ can only create some elements and parts of the future system of world relations. That system will not become global until the US and its allies accept and join it.
Moreover, attempts to enshrine new principles and laws without participation of the West can lead to wars, conflicts and irreparable damage and losses. This is the understanding demonstrated in Kazan, Russia, by the majority of participants in the summit of BRICS leaders and their supporters.
The main message that Vladimir Putin and other BRICS leaders delivered was: “We are not the West, but we are not against the West.” This message suggests that its leaders understand that interaction of BRICS and the West in developing laws and rules of international relations remains the main task and decisive factor.
However, most of the Western leaders continue to treat BRICS+ as adversary and enemy that must be split, brought under control and obliged to recognize the leadership of the United States and its allies.
All this is reminiscent of the history of England in the 13th century, when the English barons forced King John to sign the Magna Carta, and the 17th century, when the absolute power of the king, at that time Charles I, was replaced by the parliamentary system of power as result of the civil war in England (1642-1649).
At present, the two similar processes, the barons’ struggle for their rights in the 13th century and the civil war in the 17th century, are taking place as single process, at the global level. The barons are world civilizations that form their civilizational macro-regions by gathering around their “knights”, other countries that are forced to choose and join civilizational centers.
The historical process has accelerated, and instead of several centuries, “global democratization” will take only a few years. Failure to work out and sign New Magna Carta may lead to the death of peoples and civilizations.
As in the 13th and 17th centuries, the 21st century conflict between the US and BRICS+ is about power, rights, sovereignty and finance.
In the 13th century, the king lost the right to impose new taxes without the consent of the Royal Council, which gradually evolved into Parliament and became the elected body in 1265. It was the English Parliament that created the system of power that is now called “parliamentary democracy.”
Currently, transformation of the global financial system is taking place, including the payment system, financial transactions, investment and banking system. The BRICS+ countries that took part in the summit in Kazan comprise more than half of the world’s population and the largest interstate union in terms of economic power, natural resources potential and the highest rates of development. They are creating new financial system that allows currencies of all countries to work under the same conditions, use digital currency in trade, avoiding any sanctions.
The West is also working on transforming the financial system, but in such a way that this process takes place in the interests of existing financial institutions and with minimal losses for them, consolidating their control over the world finances.
The BRICS+ countries are embedded in the existing system and find it difficult to abandon it, but the sanctions policy has turned this system into weapon aimed against the leading BRICS countries and posing a clear threat to the rest. Therefore, BRICS+ is accelerating the process of creating financial system that, like the Russian Matryoshka, first arose within the existing system, then grow and strengthen, and in the future will absorb what remains of the old system. Everything that cannot adapt and enter the BRICS’ system will die out.
The new system significantly simplifies the work of all its elements and components, reduces costs and stimulates development, involving everyone, practically the entire population in financial transactions and the investment process, regardless of the size of financial resources, access to them and the timing of transactions.
BRICS+ is creating new payment system that 1) introduces single digital currency that is stable and free from inflation; 2) is decentralized, based on the blockchain system and cannot be controlled by one world power or a small group of countries, politicians and banks; 3) allows on the basis of equality to use currencies from all countries of the world.
The new system is set up to deprive the US dollar of its dominance in the global financial system and its reserve status. It fundamentally changes some of the most important functions of banks, their place in the economy and social life of both individual states and the international system as a whole. The banking system is built around the New Development Bank of BRICS and assumes the strengthening of the role of the Central Banks of the BRICS+ countries.
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In the middle of the 17th century, the Organizational Center of the state system in England was replaced. Before, the Monarch was the Center of power. As a result of the civil war, Parliament became the Organizational Center of the system. It was the transfer of powers from the Monarch to Parliament and transformation of Parliament into the Organizational Center of the state system of England that became the moment of transformation of the English absolute monarchy into bourgeois democracy that later created the constitutional monarchy as compromise and balance of forces.
The laws and rules by which countries interacted were always determined by the winners of major wars. This time, new system of relations between states and blocs is being formed not by major wars and without direct military conflict between the opposing sides. The struggle is taking place in buffer zones, using proxies, as well as in the economy in the form of sanctions war, in information and political confrontation.
The world is at a crossroads. The world will go down the path of wars and conflicts or the path of interaction and cooperation in developing laws and rules for new world order. And the decision is up to the West.
Since the 18th century, international relations have been formed according to the laws of Western European civilization, Western democracy developed by that time. This system turned out to be the most effective at that stage of world development and provided advantages for the Western European countries, especially in military, science and industrial production.
It was the rules and laws developed in Western Europe that dominated international relations for nearly three centuries. They were largely adopted by the Romanov dynasty in the Russian Empire, and the attempts to develop Russian civilization along Western European lines led to revolutions in Russia and the death of the Romanovs. India, America and China were colonized and subjected to the laws of Western European democracy, as were other states in various regions of the world.
This system was transformed during the period of confrontation between Western capitalism and Soviet socialism, that attempted to create a new state system based on the ideology born of Western civilization, communism, which had at its core the same principles of Western democracy, transposed to the class fighting principle and approach.
Despite the attempt by Marxists and socialists to change the system of relations between classes, states and peoples, the essence of the system of relationships remained the same. The USSR was unable to adapt Marxism to the conditions of Russian civilization, and was unable to change the system of relations between peoples and states, and these were two main reasons for the collapse of the USSR, the socialist bloc in Europe, the death of the Marxist experiment in the 20th century.
After the collapse of the USSR and the defeat of the communist ideology, that was was mummified and was not transformed in accordance with the requirements of different civilizations and new level of development of science and technology, the USA became the only center of political, military, financial and economic power in the world. That was important qualitative change in the world order, – the creation of the unipolar world, and that turned out to be the violation of the very nature of Western European democracy.
The very principles of Western democracy have come into conflict with the established system of international relations dominated by the USA. Unipolar world cannot exist in the system of Western democracy, based on the right to competition, to fight for one’s interests wherever there is an opportunity and chance to win, as its fundamental principle.
The right to compete and fight for one’s interests is supported by other principles of Western democracy that enshrine
– the legitimacy of the results and compromises reached during the struggle,
– the right to use force, to resist and suppress those who violate the laws that record the results and compromises achieved in the course of the struggle,
– the right of the strongest to impose his will on the weakest, to rule him.
However, it is precisely this last principle that enshrines the right of the strong to impose their will on others that has become a brake on development of civilizations. This principle was rejected by the BRICS countries and the Global South, not only from moral point and sense of justice, but also taking into account requirements of the new technological order that requires higher level of human intellect, culture, science, and morality.
The present level of technological development requires, on the one hand, creation of better conditions for the development of both individuals and nations, and on the other hand, transition of humanity to community based on interactions of civilizations.
At the present stage, the creation and growth of monetary capital has become secondary, and the most important factor has become the development of social capital, including culture, science, human intelligence, and increased role of moral principles. Monetary capital is becoming increasingly derivative of social capital, culture, science, and the moral standards.
This has led to civilizations being interested primarily in self-development. Civilizations that control important resources, including energy and natural resources, as well as intellectual resources, including culture and science, are less interested in exporting their resources and production to create monetary capital and convert resources into money.
Civilizations are interested in self-development, in reducing the cost of living and developing their human resources, intellectual, cultural and scientific potential of their peoples. People of high culture and intelligence become the main task and meaning of the development of the state, society, and civilization.
Civilizational macro-regions will reduce, and possibly even stop exporting their resources. They will use their resources and produce primarily to ensure their own production and low cost of living for their people and allies. They will try to minimize the costs of development of social capital within their civilization regions.
This has already led to increase in the gap between prices at which civilizations trade with partners and allies, and prices on the open world market. That created new situation for international stock exchanges and started radically changing the system of international trade.
There come the era of cartel deals, agreements and contracts. The cartel approach already dominates in Russia’s trade with China and India, North Korea and Iran, Syria and Venezuela, Cuba and most of the former Soviet states, OPEC and some of the African states, as well as most other BRICS+ countries. It was the violation of the cartel agreement that caused the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to begin.
Before the conflict in Ukraine, Russia tried to build its trade relations on the basis of cartel agreements not only with OPEC, China, and former Soviet countries, but also with Europe, primarily with Germany and Turkey. After the war in Ukraine began, most of the EU states, the most important among them, Germany, abandoned the cartel agreements with Russia, and allowed to blow up the Nord Stream gas pipeline and started sanctions war. At the same time, Turkey has not only maintained cartel agreements with Russia, but is also striving to develop them, including by joining BRICS+.
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Civilizations, as it turned out, are capable of not only competing and negotiating, but also complementing each other, supporting common development.
The system that BRICS+ is trying to create and has begun to implement in relations between its member states, is based on the main principle that consolidates the world as community of equal, interdependent world civilizations.
Will the world be able to switch to new principles and laws of world interactions with minimal losses, avoiding major wars? There are not so many chances.
In the modern world, there are rebellious “barons”, “knights” and “king”, but to create and sign New Magna Carta, there needs to be also new William Marshal who could become the guarantor of the Magna Carta. Otherwise, new Cromwell will appear on the world stage…