The ceasefire in the Middle East is merely a pause, masking tectonic shifts in the region’s structure. While most analysts skim the surface, discussing the interests of the US, Iran, or Israel, they ignore the most critical factor: the fate of the Gulf Monarchies.

1. Reformatting the Owners of Oil

The Gulf Monarchies have traditionally been the masters of their resources, but today they are ceasing to be sovereign subjects in the «Great Game.» One of the unspoken goals of the current conflicts is the transformation—or removal—of these archaic structures. Oil must pass under the direct control of Transnational Corporations (TNCs).

It is vital to understand the difference: TNCs are not state bureaucratic machines (like those in Russia), but structures with millions of shareholders and strict personal accountability for top management. This is why it is easier for the US to work with China than with Russian state corporations, where the leadership, protected by clan interests, bears no responsibility for systemic failures.

 2. New Centers of Power: Iran and Israel

From the ashes of this war, a new regional management system is emerging:

• Iran emerges from the conflict strengthened. It has proven the viability of its state model, based on a unique civilizational code, and its readiness to become the centre of its macro-region.
• Israel maintains its status as a regional centre despite an internal political crisis and the weakening of Benjamin Netanyahu’s position. In the long term, Israel could become the core of a civilizational macro-region, gradually drawing in Arab nations that have lost their footing with the collapse of the monarchies.

3. The «Middle Eastern Wagner» and New Security Systems

As direct US military presence becomes an unwanted burden, new systems for protecting extraction and logistics will take centre stage. I predict the creation of an international «Middle Eastern Wagner»—a structure designed to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the oil fields.

Here, several interests may intersect:

• Ukraine (Zelensky), possessing immense combat experience and a surplus of passionate military personnel, is looking for ways to monetize its army amidst a ruined domestic economy and finance.
• Russia, traditionally attempting to maintain its influence in the region.
• The USA, which would prefer to supply weaponry to these private structures to protect the oil and gas production and outflow, rather than participate in conflicts directly.