The global crisis, which has culminated in the sharpest confrontation across the former USSR, is not merely a clash of geopolitical ambitions. It is a deep, systemic abscess that has exposed the internal problems of Russia and Ukraine, as well as those of the entire Western world. Today, as the shadow of a larger conflict looms over the border of Ukraine and Belarus, it becomes obvious: without a fundamental internal transformation, the participants in this crisis risk finding themselves in a historical dead end.
Russia’s Technological Gap and Elite Crisis
One of the main vulnerabilities revealed during the current military actions is the shortage of advanced communication and coordination technologies. Russia has lost strategic time and the initiative in developing space communications and the high-tech «small sky.» In modern warfare, dominated by unmanned systems and network-centric approaches, the lack of reliable space assets and navigation deprives troops of the ability to operate effectively deep within enemy territory.
The root of the problem is intra-systemic. This is a classic crisis of elites. For years, positions of key authority in aviation, space, and high technologies were handed to representatives of corrupt clans—managers lacking both a specialized strategic vision and an understanding of the scale of the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution.
To change from within and overcome its backwardness, Russia vitally needs a radical meritocratic reform: replacing the administrative apparatus with people who possess a fundamentally different, modernization-oriented mindset, capable of integrating science and technology into the real sector.
The Belarusian Knot: An Ultimatum and a New Spiral of Escalation
The Belarusian direction risks becoming the macro-region’s newest hotspot. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent harsh ultimatum to Minsk—demanding the removal or shutdown of border-zone Russian repeaters and drone/missile guidance stations within a week—puts the region on the brink of a new war. Zelenskyy’s ultimatum is an informal declaration of war.
For Lukashenko and Belarus, this ultimatum is a trap:
- Security Interests: Minsk cannot completely abandon Russian systems, as they provide air defense and protect its own airspace.
- The Policy of Maneuvering: Alexander Lukashenko, known for his tactical flexibility and political cunning, will obviously try to «wriggle out»—avoiding direct involvement in the conflict while simultaneously evading public humiliation. However, the room for maneuver is shrinking rapidly, and the trap will pull him in deeper and deeper.
For Kyiv and Europe, this step is an attempt to exploit an opening «window of opportunity.» Against the backdrop of successes in drone technologies and Western informational support, Ukrainian and European leadership have grown convinced that economic or military pressure (up to strikes on Belarusian oil refineries) can achieve regime change in Minsk. For Europe, removing Belarus from Moscow’s sphere of influence is a strategic solution to the security challenges of the Baltic states, Kaliningrad, and the control over a vast territory.
The Trap for Zelenskyy and Peace Initiatives
Kyiv itself is also in a highly complex domestic and international situation. In the West (especially given the strict demands of Donald Trump and Europe’s general fatigue), calls to stop the war are growing louder.
However, the Ukrainian leadership cannot agree to a freeze of the conflict under current conditions. This is precisely why Zelenskyy uses sharp rhetoric and personal insults against Putin and the Kremlin—it is a deliberate blocking of the negotiation process, as no real compromise mechanisms acceptable to all sides have been developed yet. Nevertheless, historical precedents (such as the method of settling the war between Iran and the US–Israel alliance demonstrated by Trump) show that if there is will and desire, a peace process can be launched even without direct handshakes between leaders.
Global Context: The Resource War of the Future
The internal problems of the macro-region are unfolding against a global tectonic shift that has manifested as a global resource war.
The technological leap, the development of artificial intelligence, and the large-scale automation of production in the coming decades will directly hinge on the cost of energy resources. AI requires colossal amounts of the cheapest possible electricity. In this paradigm:
- Russia, with its massive resource reserves, and Belarus, with its highly powerful oil refining infrastructure, represent a prized target.
- Military pressure and sanctions are, among other things, a tool for the West (and primarily the US) to redistribute control over the global energy balance and force Russia into «sharing» its resources on unfavorable terms.
What Needs to Be Done to Change?
To break out of the historical trap in which Belarus now finds itself following Ukraine, the countries of the macro-region need a shift in their internal paradigms:
- For Russia: To realize that sovereignty in the 21st century is maintained not by the volume of raw materials, but by technological superiority, the development of culture and science, and most importantly—the quality of public governance. A total audit of the elites, a transformation of the state system, and a commitment to innovative modernization are required.
- For Ukraine: To stop being a hostage to the geopolitical role of a «battering ram» or a «legionnaire,» and to think about a long-term formula for coexistence in the region. Endless escalation and dragging neighbors (Belarus) into the fire threaten the complete exhaustion of its own demographic and economic base, and the destruction of Ukraine as a state.
- For Belarus: To turn the situation around and take the initiative by coming forward with proposals that will allow peace negotiations to begin before Belarus is dragged into the war.
The way out of the crisis does not lie on the battlefield near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Gomel, or in the Donbas—it lies in the deep internal healing of the state systems across the entire post-Soviet space.
