Modern wars—whether in Ukraine or Iran—demonstrate a common pattern: the initiators not only fail to obtain the results they anticipated, but their actions often lead to the opposite effect. Consequently, those who started the conflicts are forced to shift their objectives and act in ways they never planned or desired.

1. Donald Trump’s Iranian Deadlock: Systemic Crisis and Civilizational Gap

The situation with Iran is a classic example of how military and political success can turn into a strategic defeat. Trump managed to trigger a regime shift by eliminating the previous leadership and dismantling a significant portion of the nuclear industry, yet the result has created threats to long-term U.S. interests.

—  Generational Radicalization: A radicalization of generations has occurred; moderate pragmatists have been replaced by a new generation of leaders (aged 40–50). They are tougher, more aggressive, and far more hostile toward the West and Israel than their predecessors.

— Increased Nuclear Threat: While the previous regime adhered to a religious decree (*fatwa*) against creating nuclear weapons, the current leaders are already prepared to consider this path. The next generation that would emerge in the event of new strikes, will make the creation of a bomb their primary objective.

— The Economic Boomerang: Trump boasts of record American oil exports, but within the U.S., fuel prices have risen by 25–30%. A global economic collapse has begun, along with energy and financial crises that hit the ratings of Trump and his allies, and their economic interests, just as hard as they hit the economies of most countries, including Iran.

2. Perception Error and the Clash of Civilizations

The primary reason behind the failures of Trump, Netanyahu, and European strategists is the attempt to evaluate an opponent—in this case, Iran or Russia—through the lens of Western thinking.

Western civilization is based on the principles and morals of Western European democracy: if there is an opportunity, fight for your rights and interests by any means as long as potential gains outweigh losses. When that becomes impossible, stop and negotiate, developing laws and agreements that all parties are obliged to fulfil.

The West assumes the opponent will react rationally: retreating under pressure or being bought off with financial incentives. However, Iran is a different civilization with a different mentality and a deep-seated religious factor that influences all processes, including political decision-making—especially when the question is not about profit, but about the survival of the civilization itself.

Russia reacts and acts just as unpredictably for the West. When the Kremlin realized that the special operation in Ukraine had turned into a war not so much with Ukraine but with the entire West, including the U.S. and Europe, Russia began fighting the West specifically. When Trump came to power and the U.S. «exited the war»—or more precisely, limited its participation to selling weapons to Europe and providing intelligence and space communications—Russia focused on the war with Europe. The replacement of ruling elites in European countries and the collapse or extreme weakening of NATO became the Kremlin’s main goals, alongside regime change and the dismantling of modern Ukraine to create a pro-Russian «post-state» on its territory/

3. How to Resolve the Situation? Lessons from South Africa

To stop the bloodshed, the U.S. and Europe must stop thinking in categories of business or political deals. It is necessary to move toward a **Dialogue of Civilizations**.

Recall the example of South Africa. When apartheid reached a deadlock, it seemed to everyone that massive bloodshed was unavoidable. The situation was saved not by politicians, but by people who took the discussion beyond the framework of political and party interests. They planned processes for a bloodless exit from the crisis and the democratization of South Africa. They identified Nelson Mandela—a man who mentally matched the moment of transition and could lead the necessary process of interaction.

Today, the same method must be applied: freeing ourselves from the dependence and influence of ruling factions in warring countries, finding a scheme for interaction regardless of current political ambitions, and proposing this scheme to politicians as a possible path for survival and an exit from the crisis.

4. The Technological Trap and «Impossible War»

The world has entered an era where war is becoming «impossible» and, at the same time, uncontrollable and «endless.» Iran may not strike the U.S. directly, but it can destroy U.S. authority and policy by undermining the stability of Middle Eastern monarchies.

In effect, military and strategic planning has collapsed. Washington thought Israel would be a compliant tool, but Israel, striving to create its own civilizational macro-region, pursues its own goals, which do not always align with Trump’s plans.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has hit a wall: the recognition by Russian elites and the people that a distinct civilization, separate from the Russian one, is forming in Ukraine. This does not mean the inevitability of conflict or antagonism between the two. «Ukrainianism» and the «Russian World» can live together peacefully, but for this to happen, Russia must recognize Ukrainian identity and develop principles for peaceful interaction. This includes the possibility of Ukraine entering the Russian macro-region through the transformation of the state systems of both Russia and Ukraine.

5. Internal Transformation of the State

Current state political systems are incapable of fulfilling their functions. They are technically and mentally obsolete.

— In Ukraine and Russia, the bureaucracy is attempting to preserve a clan-based model of management, while the technological and information revolutions demand transparency and efficiency.

— Trump is in a situation where he can neither wage war (too expensive and dangerous) nor negotiate (hindered by internal enemies and lobbyists). Unless a new model for interaction between superpowers and Middle Eastern states is found—one based on the recognition of the interests of various civilizations—we will continue to witness a «meat grinder» where the only winners are those who profit from the process, not the result.