The defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary is more than just the loss of a single party. This event marks the collapse of a governance model built over decades and deals a staggering blow to Donald Trump’s strategy in Europe. To understand why this happened and how it links Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington, one must look deep into the mechanics of the system.
1. The Hungarian Precedent: A Revolution Against the «Crypto-State»
Analysts were mistaken in predicting an Orban victory based on the loyalty of small towns. In reality, the opposite occurred: people did not vote against Orban’s ideas, but against the bureaucracy he created.
Over 20 years, corrupt clans formed in Hungary, monopolizing financial flows and local power. This is a classic «crypto-state»—a shadow structure emerging within the official system. This phenomenon is rooted in the Soviet era.
In my book, *The Secret History of Communism in Russia*, I describe how, under conditions of scarcity, the bureaucracy created artificial resource shortages to enrich themselves through the shadow market. The story of milk coolers in the 1990s—where Russia spent $4 billion on importing powdered milk instead of $750 million on its own production—is a classic example of these clans at work. They profit from inefficiency because it is their primary source of income.
Hungary has become the first country where a parallel centre of power matured within the system. People voted for «new faces» not out of love for the opposition, but out of hatred for the criminal-bureaucratic clans. This is a wake-up call for Russia and Ukraine, where state systems are built on the same blueprints of the late 1980s.
2. The Informational Defeat of Trump and Palantir
Orban’s defeat is a personal defeat for Trump. It is striking that the forces backing Trump—advanced technological corporations like Palantir, which wield artificial intelligence—completely lost the information war in a country as small as Hungary.
Wha are the reasons?
1. Lack of Media Tools: Trump does not control global or European media flows.
2. A Crisis of Ideas: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a powerful tool, but it only processes existing information. AI is incapable of creating a new political ideology.
Trump arrived with slogans of efficiency and financial reform (where banks act as a service with 1% returns rather than the masters of the world). However, he became bogged down in “Stopping wars” and in the war in Iran and failed to offer the world a new «Grand Idea.» Without an ideology of development, his system turns into the «chewing of old paper,» which led to the failure of popular support for Orban.
3. Consequences for Europe and Ukraine: A Course Toward Radicalization
The celebration in Kyiv and Brussels over Orban’s exit may be premature.
— Trump’s Retaliation: Cornered, Trump will now act with redoubled aggression. He will direct all resources toward supporting Euro-sceptics (such as Nigel Farage in Britain) and discrediting the ruling elites of the EU.
— The Financial Trap: The European Union will have to immediately pay Hungary the €35 billion that was withheld under Orban. Amidst rising oil prices (due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) and depleting resources, finding money for Ukraine will become even more difficult.
4. The Convergence of Putin and Trump: The Ukrainian Knot
Paradoxically, Orban’s defeat may push Trump toward a sharp rapprochement with the Kremlin. Having lost his main ally in Europe, Trump will seek a quick victory to restore his reputation before the Congressional elections.
The shortest path to such a «victory» is a joint solution with Putin on the Ukrainian issue. Trump and Putin are now forced to accelerate their cooperation. For Zelensky, this signifies a period of maximum uncertainty: his fate becomes a bargaining chip in a grand deal where Trump needs to prove his effectiveness as a «peacemaker» at any cost.
Conclusion
The world is changing not by the will of politicians, but under the pressure of the inefficiency of old systems. Hungary has shown: bureaucratic clans can hold power for a long time, but they are powerless against the emergence of an alternative organizational centre. The question now is who will create such a centre in Russia and Ukraine—and what idea will form its foundation.
We are moving from a world of “political theatre,” where the bureaucracy has taken on the role of playwright and director of the performance, to a reality where the survival of states depends on their ability to dismantle the “crypto-states” that drain resources and destroy civilizations.
