Despite the tension caused by Vladimir Putin’s recent ultimatum, most politicians in the West remained relatively calm, although many understood that the rejected ultimatum has to be followed by some action that would radically change the situation in confrontation between the West and Russia.
One of the main reasons for that tranquility of Western leaders was their confidence that Moscow, Beijing and their main allies had not yet created military alliance that could become the main threat to the dominance of the United States and NATO.
The second factor that maintained the calm of the West was the belief that the BRICS association that was actively expanding and gaining strength, was also unable to transform into military-political alliance directed against the West.
Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea and signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between the two states started changing that opinion. The agreement marked the creation of military-political alliance between Russia and North Korea.
Moreover, this agreement was signed with the quiet and unofficial consent of China that also has strategic partnership agreement with North Korea. Thus, we can talk about the creation of military-political alliance consisting of Russia, Belarus, China, and North Korea.
The danger of misunderstanding and mistakes
The hope for the inability of Russia and China to create military alliance was based on the Western leaders’ understanding of the multipolarity that has emerged in the world and on their underestimation of the risks generated by this multipolarity.
The West understands multipolarity as the existence of several centers of power capable of competing with each other and fighting for primacy in one system of international relations. The West believes that competition and struggle between such centers will inevitably lead to destabilization and growth of military conflicts in the world, and therefore the West opposes multipolarity, considering it dangerous both for itself and for the entire international community.
This understanding of multipolarity has strong reasons. The emergence in any system of several poles of power instead of a single organizational center can lead and most often leads to split of the system into several subsystems, to rivalry, contradictions and conflicts between them.
The West is trying to defend the existing world order not only in order to maintain or extend the dominance of the United States, but also in order to avoid splitting the world into opposing military-political blocs.
However, over the past twenty years, the United States and its allies have been losing their influence in the world, and this process continues and only accelerates. This is objective reality that cannot be ignored.
The current generation of leaders of Western countries is weak. They make mistakes in economics and politics that lead to growing problems not only in the United States and within its allied states, but throughout the world. If the leaders of the West of previous generations remained in history primarily for their achievements, the leaders of the West in recent decades became famous for their mistakes, failures and disappointments.
At the same time, the economic and political power and influence of China, Russia, India and the Arab world, Latin America, the countries of Southeast Asia were growing in recent years.
Moreover, the states that had been artificially divided by the West into the Global South and the Global East started uniting and forming the Global Majority, and exactly this Global Majority stands for multipolarity and reject other alternatives.
However, there is one important point that has to be taken into account…
What is “Multipolar World”?
The BRICS leaders, like the leaders of the West, have their own perception of multipolar world order that is under formation. Even the idea, the vision of new world order is still in the process of formation. The leaders of BRICS act by trial and error on the basis of political rationalism.
The system of international relations that they are trying to build can only be conditionally called “multipolar world,” because this term more reflects confusion and misunderstanding of what is happening. It simplifies and distorts principles and ideas that the new world order is being built on.
Important, the term “multipolar world” is not used by China. Xi Jinping has repeatedly used another term that has many ways of translation in English: “Community with a shared future for mankind”, “Community of common destiny for mankind” or “human community with a shared future”
In Russia and other BRICS countries politicians do not argue with the Chinese leader and do not object to him, but this absence of disputes and discussions is explained mainly by the fact that they do not understand what the Chinese mean by the hieroglyphs denoting the Chinese variant of the new world order -人類命運共同體.
How can the state leaders argue if it is not very clear what the Chinese leader is talking about? So, Xi Jinping’s partners in BRICS continue to talk about multipolar world, while Western politicians try to maintain calm, demonstrate confidence and continue to ignore the Chinese concept.
However, it is important to note that all the BRICS leaders share Xi Jinping’s opinion that new world order must be built on the basis of interaction, interrelationship and interdependence of peoples, states, and civilizations, that in the international relations it is necessary to abandon force, war, and coercion.
There is one question: how to ensure this? Or, how to create a multipolar system that would ensure stability and security for all participating partners?
The leaders of the BRICS countries develop relationships on the principle of predominance of cooperation over competition. They believe that it gives them not only opportunity to rapidly develop, increase efficiency of their economies, strengthen security, but also gives them advantages over the West that operates on principles of Western democracy, competition, rivalry and fight for interests and power.
The West believes that the BRICS and its supporters can stay united only temporarily, and that multipolarity brings weakness to the system that will not be able to withstand the United States and its allies.
Washington and European capitals believe that single power center system that has one leader, and strict coordination of actions of ruling elites give advantages that make the West stronger compared to any multipolar bloc.
However, there is one factor that the West is to take into consideration…
Could BRICS become military alliance?
It is necessary to recognize that the world has already been divided into two alliances that are increasingly opposing each other, and the level of confrontation is rapidly increasing. In between these blocs, undecided states are trying to survive, some of them ready to join the strongest or benefit from the weakening or destruction of one of the blocs.
The first bloc, the Western, has existed for eighty years, since the beginning of the Cold War, and in recent years has been actively expanding. This expansion was caused by the emergence of new strategic rivals in mid2000-s. The Western bloc is developing through the expansion of NATO, as well as through the creation and development of other alliances.
Washington remains the single organizational and power center of the bloc and determines its political and military goals, as well as means and methods of achieving them, and the moral rules of interaction within the bloc and with the outside world. The Western bloc is based on strict subordination and coordination of actions.
The main problems of the Western bloc are internal political and social instability, splits along racial, ethnic, cultural, religious and other grounds, as well as erosion of traditional moral and ethical principles that leads to further splits in social and political spheres.
Most of those problems for the West were created by erroneous decisions in recent decades, that were caused by degradation of political elites. Erroneous decisions made over the past two decades in the alliance that operates on principles of strict subordination and coordination of actions, have led to economic and social problems in all once prosperous states of the Western Union.
The main factors that play in favor of the US-led bloc include its ability to plan and coordinate actions within the bloc, as well as its dominance in the military, financial, technological and information spheres. However, this dominance is rapidly diminishing,
Also, the important role is played by the ability of the West to influence clans and groups within countries opposing the West, primarily in Russia because of its clan’s system, maintained by Vladimir Putin. Through those clans the West has opportunity to influence, to “edit” and even provoke decisions, including strategic, as it happened in 2022, when the Kremlin decided to invade Ukraine.
It cannot be ruled out that Putin’s last “ultimatum” was prepared with the participation of those who act in the interests of the West, or in their own clans’ interests in order to manipulate Putin. The ultimatum was obviously unacceptable, and there could be only two reasons behund it:
1) Moscow is ready to decisively turn the situation in its favor,
2) Putin is being driven into another trap, as happened with the unprepared special military operation in Ukraine, in 2022.
The second bloc is being formed as more flexible, self-organizing system around the most dynamically developing state-civilizations that created the BRICS and stand for multipolarity.
Can BRICS become the basis of military alliance opposing the Western bloc?
One may not believe in such a possibility and reject it. However, we should remember what happened eighty years ago, when the Anti-Hitler Coalition was created in World War II.
Until June 22, 1941, the USA and Great Britain were enemies of the USSR. At the same time, the USSR had agreement with Germany that was at war with Great Britain.
By the beginning of 1941, it was clear to everyone that war between Germany and the USSR had become inevitable. Moreover, Stalin knew that agreement had been concluded between Washington and London that if the USSR attacks Germany and start winning the war, Washington would support Germany. However, if the USSR is attacked by continental Europe led by Germany, as well as their ally Japan, then Washington and London would provide assistance to the USSR.
Stalin could not allow Hitler to create situation where the USSR would be isolated and would oppose the union of Europe led by Nazi Germany, supported by Japan, and the USA-UK bloc, in fact, the whole world, and Stalin did everything so that the USSR could not be presented like aggressor and initiator of the war. The USSR had to become and became the victim of aggression.
Stalin preferred that the USSR was not ready for the outbreak of war than to remain alone against the whole world. Stalin did everything to ensure that Hitler became the aggressor. Eighty years later, Zelensky, the West and the Russian clans and groups interested in the war managed to make Putin and Russia the aggressor…
Most important, the Anti-Hitler coalition that became the most powerful and efficient military bloc in history, was not even formalized by the relevant treaties. It proved that the most effective military alliances are built on the coincidence of vital strategic interests, on the presence of common mortal threats to peoples, states, and civilizations, and not those based on signed agreements protecting financial, economic and political interests of elites.
The economic and political interests of elites, clans, and party groups cannot be equivalent to threats to the existence of civilizations, peoples and states.
BRICS is being built primarily as the alliance of civilizations, states united by common strategic interests, by the respect for values of each and every civilization. However, this is not enough to transform BRICS into military bloc ready to resist Western domination.
To transform BRICS into the military alliance comparable to the Anti-Hitler Coalition, required three important factors:
- Clear threat posed to the BRICS countries and their allies from the United States, Europe and Washington’s allies in Asia. These states that see mortal threat to themselves emanating from the West, were the first to unite into military alliance: Russia, China, North Korea, Belarus, Iran, Afghanistan…
- The West’s refusal to negotiate and its desire to escalate tensions. Putin’s ultimatums, issued in 2021 and 2024, rejected by the West, were intended, among other goals, to demonstrate the West’s unwillingness to compromise for the sake of peace.
- Superiority of the anti-Western alliance in the most modern types of weapons and its demonstration in real battles, and ability to develop and modernize the military industrial complex.
One can see all that happening in Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa and the South East Asia, where there is clear increase in confrontation, threats and military escalation.
So far, the West has not been able to prove its advantage in weapons on the Ukrainian fronts, with the exception of space communications and reconnaissance forces.
Russia has managed to modernize its strategic nuclear forces, significantly to increase production of weapons, and has demonstrated the effectiveness of its new hypersonic missiles, electronic warfare systems, drones, and anti-missile systems that undergo constant modernization in battles.
Following Russia, taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine, China and Iran are also increasing their production of weapons, including hypersonic and strategic missiles, drones and components, space communications and reconnaissance equipment, and North Korea has increased its trade turnover with Russia since the beginning of 2023, eight times.
There is no doubt that trade between Russia and North Korea will maintain its growth rate in the coming years, primarily due to the supply of weapons, food, as well as joint projects in space and the development of strategic missiles that will allow Pyongyang to launch nuclear strikes in the event of war at the targets on the territory of the United States, Japan and their allies. Undoubtably, all that is included in the secret part of the agreement signed by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un.
It can be assumed with high probability that agreement has been reached between the leaders of Russia and North Korea on the participation of North Korean troops in hostilities in Ukraine, primarily in the territories that had been included into Russia. This will not only reduce Russian losses, but also raise the level of combat training of the North Korean army and allow to test its new types of weapons in real combat conditions.
It can be expected that the demonstration of weapons of new generation will be Moscow’s response to the refusal of Ukraine and the West to accept the latest Russian ultimatum. Moscow has already announced that in the near future it intends to launch the “Burevestnik”, new strategic missile with nuclear engine of unlimited range that can also operate as power station for the new generation of space stations.
“Burevestnik” will become the first space nuclear power plant and the main energy unit for huge space complex, capable of not only providing the necessary conditions for the life and work of hundreds of astronauts from dozens of countries, moving any distance, but also destroying space objects, including satellites, aircraft and missiles, almost unlimited in number and time. It is significant that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, commander of the troops in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, was appointed responsible for the launch of the “Burevestnik”.
In addition to demonstrating new types of weapons, Moscow can begin transferring technologies and modern weapons, including the latest missiles to its allies that can directly threaten the United States, European countries and members of the western bloc in Asia, Latin America and Africa.
Dead end or light at the end of the tunnel
However, the most important factor that pushes humanity into the world nuclear dead end is personal hostility, the hatred that the leaders of opposing blocs feel for each other.
The factor of personal hatred makes any negotiations extremely difficult and agreements unlikely. It is nearly impossible to develop any concept, or idea for new world order that would suit the West and BRICS, the current leaders, who have extreme hostility towards each other. They will be able to initiate this process only by reaching the limit, the highest level of confrontation and hostility. And this limit may be beyond the point of no return…
In this situation, the time has come for non-governmental diplomacy, for public organizations and expert communities. Only the negotiations and joint work of independent experts from the Western and the BRICS countries can help to get out of the deadlock, from the trap created by the leaders of states and blocs.
It’s time for Track2. Many experts and politicians in the West, including the USA, Great Britain, the EU, as well as in Russia, China, India and other BRICS countries, understand this. The task is to combine efforts and properly organize the process…
