Crucial negotiations between the United States and Iran are about to begin in Pakistan. The information space is flooded with reports about the risks of a ceasefire, but analysts are missing the main point. Almost no one in Europe or Russia is talking about the role of China, which is not merely a mediator but the key architect of this process. Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing — that is the true center of gravity in global politics.

1. Regime Change: Iranian Reality vs. Propaganda

It is currently fashionable to say that Trump «lost» to Iran by failing to achieve a change of system. But let’s examine what «regime change» actually means. A regime is the group controlling a country.

Recall Russia in the 1990s (I described this in detail in my book *Entering the Kremlin*, available for download on my website ValeryMorozov.com
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The ceasefire in the Middle East is merely a pause, masking tectonic shifts in the region’s structure. While most analysts skim the surface, discussing the interests of the US, Iran, or Israel, they ignore the most critical factor: the fate of the Gulf Monarchies.

1. Reformatting the Owners of Oil

The Gulf Monarchies have traditionally been the masters of their resources, but today they are ceasing to be sovereign subjects in the «Great Game.» One of the unspoken goals of the current conflicts is the transformation—or removal—of these archaic structures. Oil must pass under the direct control of Transnational Corporations (TNCs).

It is vital to understand the difference: TNCs are not state bureaucratic machines (like those in Russia), but structures with millions of shareholders and strict personal accountability for top management. This is why it is easier for the US to work with China than with Russian state corporations, where the leadership, protected by clan interests, bears no responsibility for systemic failures.
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Today, the question is being asked with increasing urgency: Is the world on the brink of World War III, or has it already begun? Figures like Ukraine’s GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov and several Western analysts suggest that a large-scale global conflict was ignited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Others view current events as a series of regional wars. To understand the true nature of these developments, we must look beyond the mere recitation of facts and apply a systems approach.

Bogdanov’s Tectology: Equilibrium vs. Absorption

To analyze macro-regions (USA, China, Russia, India) as systems, it is worth revisiting the ideas of Alexander Bogdanov—a preeminent thinker of the early 20th century and the founder of Tectology (the science of universal organization). Bogdanov anticipated cybernetics and systems theory by decades, yet his ideas were suppressed by Leninist dogma, which stunted the development of Soviet cybernetics and genetics for a generation.
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