The modern Ukrainian crisis has entered a phase where the fragmentation of power in Kyiv has ceased to be a mere forecast and has turned into a stark reality. A series of events in the capital—ranging from an armed clash between security agencies to large-scale searches in top state bodies—attests to a redistribution of spheres of influence and a profound crisis within Kyiv’s system of state power.
The central news is the launch of a special operation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) targeting the Prosecutor General’s Office that resulted in resignation of the General Procurator and his three Deputies.
Within NABU, this operation was codenamed «Carthage,» implying that a key structure or figure within Kyiv’s power centre must be fundamentally weakened or replaced.
Operation Carthage: The First Blow Against the Prosecutorial Arbitrator
NABU’s investigative actions and searches targeting the Prosecutors General’s Office represent an unprecedented event for a stable state. NABU—a non-constitutional body created with the direct participation and support of the West (primarily the U.S.)— is striking a direct blow against the Prosecutor General’s Office, a power structure that is constitutional from a foundational legal standpoint and pivotal for the state apparatus. Thus, the strike is aimed at the entire vertical of power, representing an attempt to seize control of the power centre.
It is the Prosecutor’s Office that determines which Verkhovna Rada deputies or officials face formal charges and criminal proceedings. Amid a potential loss of legitimacy or the weakening of the presidency, the Verkhovna Rada formally becomes the main legitimate body. Whoever controls the Prosecutor’s Office effectively controls the parliamentary corps and the configuration of future power.
The fact that NABU operational teams were blocked when trying to enter the office of the Prosecutor General—who has disappeared and has not appeared for two days—only confirms that an all-out war of attrition is underway inside the security bloc, with one part of the «Leviathan» attempting to devour another.
After two days, the Prosecutor General appeared in the Office of the President and after meeting Zelensky, resigned.
The War of Special Services: From Street Battles to Headquarters Strikes
The institutional crisis has long spilled beyond official offices. The public shootout in Kyiv between HUR (Military Intelligence) personnel and SBU (Security Service) special forces in early September demonstrated an absolute rift within the unified security framework. Both agencies report to the Commander-in-Chief, President Zelenskyy, yet they entered into a direct armed clash over operational functions and control of agent networks.
The next act in this drama was a high-precision drone strike hitting the office window of SBU Deputy Chief Poklad. This marks the first such strike on an SBU building in the capital throughout the entire period of the conflict. Given that the leadership of the service rarely uses official offices for routine work, this incident resembles less a physical assassination attempt and more a harsh «message» or an element of internal security infighting.
The Parallel with «Iron Felix»
History knows similar episodes: when a conflict within the ruling Bolshevik–Left Socialist Revolutionists (SR) coalition in Soviet Russia led to a mutiny by Chekists (most of whom were Left SRs), the arrest of Cheka chief Dzerzhinsky, and an assassination attempt on Lenin. Back then, the Bolsheviks managed to suppress the revolt because the Latvian Riflemen guarding the Moscow Kremlin remained loyal to them.
Later, a terrorist threw a bomb into the office window of Cheka chief Felix Dzerzhinsky on Lubyanka Square in Moscow. A massive steel safe stood open inside the office at that moment. Dzerzhinsky managed to jump into the safe and shut the door before the bomb detonated. The explosion destroyed everything in the room, but when Chekists rushed in, they saw Dzerzhinsky emerge completely unharmed—a feat that instantly earned him the nickname «Iron Felix.»
These historical accounts, much like the situation in Kyiv, demonstrate that the absence of unified command and a split within the power centre inevitably force security clans to resort to methods of direct destruction against their rivals.
Foreign Policy Context: A Signal to Washington or Ruined Negotiations?
The escalation of the conflict among Ukraine’s intelligence agencies coincided with an intensification of Washington’s peacekeeping efforts. The visit of Donald Trump’s special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to Moscow and Kyiv was conceived as an attempt to find a ceasefire formula. Trump publicly declared a readiness to sign agreements and even proposed a temporary truce during the mission’s work.
However, Kyiv’s reaction to the U.S. diplomatic initiative turned out to be emphatically destructive:
- The symbolic strike on Zhulyany Airport just two days prior to Witkoff and Kushner’s arrival, combined with Zelenskyy’s statements regarding risks to civilian aviation in the skies over both Russia and Ukraine, was perceived by many as a demonstrative refusal by Kyiv to accept Washington’s terms.
- Kyiv’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire without coordinating with Moscow or issuing firm orders to the front line resulted in combat operations continuing without interruption, while overnight exchanges of strikes only intensified.
The Outcome: Fragmentation of the «Leviathan» and Crisis of Power
The picture unfolding in Kyiv points to the collapse of the previous governance system. The removal of key checks and balances, the conflict involving HUR, the SBU, NABU, and the Prosecutor’s Office, alongside an open rift with American partners, leaves the President’s Office in a state of isolation.
If the political leadership fails to swiftly restore control over the security forces and engage in a constructive negotiation track with key global players, the breakdown of the system will become uncontrollable. External and internal beneficiaries have already begun a campaign to reshape Ukraine’s power configuration, where safety guarantees for the principal actors are rapidly losing their force.
