Today, the events surrounding the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the escalating confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West, have reached a critical tipping point. The true essence of the processes hidden behind dense information noise and mutual disinformation is coming into ever clearer focus.
The key event of recent weeks that triggered a wave of analytical debate was the unannounced and anomaly-filled visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow. The very fact that he used a cargo plane—accompanied by rumours ranging from secret equipment to the bodies of deceased j=officers and specialists—indicates the urgency of the situation. However, intelligence directors do not fly across the ocean for logistics; they fly to resolve fateful issues that fall squarely under the purview of special services and are not typically discussed in public.
What is actually happening at the front in Ukraine, in the rear, and behind closed doors in the Kremlin and the White House?
1. Military Revolution: The End of the «War of Cities» Myth and a Multi-Hundred-Kilometre Kill Zone
The primary reason why elites in the West and in the conflict-ridden countries struggle to understand what is happening is their reliance on outdated military templates.
It was previously believed (and reinforced by 20th-century history) that so-called «wars of cities» or strikes on rear infrastructure do not have a decisive impact on the frontline. Troops on the frontline were thought to be able to fight regardless of what occurred in the rear.
Today, this principle is broken:
- The frontline has disappeared. The concept of a classical line of contact has blurred. A so-called «kill zone» has emerged—a band of destruction spanning 100 to 150 kilometres or more in width.
- Disappearance of heavy armour from the frontlines. Tanks and heavy armoured vehicles no longer stand on the frontlines; they hide in forests in the rear, far from the front, because they are destroyed by drones on their approach. There is physically nowhere and no reason to withdraw troops.
- Stretched territory of control. Mobile sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs) move covertly within this zone, creating a chaotic picture whenever necessary. A given settlement may be listed as «under control,» even though in reality a group of 2-3 soldiers is merely taking temporary shelter there before being destroyed or retreating. In the information space, this makes it possible to paint virtually any picture desired.
2. The Collapse of Ukraine’s Rear Front and the Problem of the «Club vs. the Pinprick»
While heavy resistance continues on the frontline, the rear front is turning out to be equal in importance—and in some ways even more decisive—than the firing line itself. Here, Ukraine has run into a systemic impasse.
- Strategic imbalance of strikes. Ukraine attempted to wage an initiative-driven war by landing «pinpricks» on Russian marketplaces, energy infrastructure, and ships in the Black Sea. In response, however, came a massive and brutal blow with a «club.» Fighting pinpricks against a club proved ineffective: the collateral damage to the Ukrainian rear is incomparably higher.
- Lack of air defence and logistical failures. Western-supplied air defence systems are being destroyed, and key depots holding weapons and imported goods ended up concentrated in vulnerable locations. Meanwhile, the Russian military has launched its own satellite reconnaissance constellation, which, combined with AI and human intelligence, provides precise target telemetry.
- Economic and food collapse. The destruction of marketplaces, logistics hubs, and warehouses ahead of winter has left Ukraine facing an acute shortage of basic goods. There is simply no money for procurement: the West allocates funds primarily to purchase its own European weaponry, leaving the social and consumer sectors in Ukraine unfunded.
3. The West’s «Calculated Rationality» and the Corruption Abyss
Western civilization operates pragmatically: a policy shift occurs the moment the cost of continuing a process outweighs the potential benefit.
The West has realized that Ukraine in its current state is turning into an unviable and pointless financial asset. Corruption in Ukraine has crossed all possible limits, devaluation any investment. The heavily media-promoted digitalization system—subordinated to the interests of a corrupt bureaucracy—has proven in practice to be completely ineffective at preserving resources.
At the same time, severe systemic problems are also surfacing in Russia, particularly within the fuel and energy complex (FEC). Instead of placing the FEC on a military-grade security posture, the sector was left or even handed over to speculative groups and clans. The sole exception remains Rosneft, whose management—due to personal ties with the president—is absorbing the shock and holding prices out of a sense of personal political responsibility. This is precisely why a decree was recently issued in the Russian Federation allowing the state to seize enterprises that are inadequately protected during wartime.
However, while Russia is attempting to reconfigure its management, in Ukraine this process has reached a complete dead end.
4. The Hidden Meaning of Ratcliffe’s Visit: Peace Terms and the Fate of Zelenskyy
The high-level meeting with Donald Trump upon the CIA Director’s return, the accompanying State Department warnings advising US citizens not to visit Ukraine, and the announced visit of FBI Director Kash Patel to Moscow are all links in the same chain.
Trump needs to close the Ukrainian case and reach a peace agreement in the window after the Russian elections (September 20) and strictly BEFORE the US Congressional elections (before November 3).
What did Ratcliffe agree upon with Bortnikov and Naryshkin?
The main takeaway from these closed-door intelligence contacts is that negotiations centered on the terms and rules for transitioning to a peace track, specifically:
- Regime change in Kyiv. Zelenskyy will be removed. Putin has categorically refused to hold personal meetings or negotiations with him. Therefore, regime change will occur through internal processes—a public coup, a military conspiracy, or removal by internal elites. The Kremlin will formally remain on the sidelines, while the task will be carried out by intelligence services and internal discontent. Russia will ensure a level of damage to energy facilities, bridges, and the transport system that is unacceptable for the Zelenskyy regime and Ukraine.
- Global anti-corruption purge (The Kash Patel Factor). The FBI Director’s upcoming visit to Moscow is tied to «opening the files.» Corruption schemes surrounding Ukraine are deeply intertwined with the interests of certain political forces in the US, Europe, and Russia itself. This is a classic «Kremlin showdown» (analogous to events in the 1990s), where presenting compromising financial files resolved the fate of top generals and officials in 10 minutes. These materials will be used as leverage to force elites to agree to the peace terms.
- A New Status for Ukraine — A Special Tax and Economic Zone. A new concept is replacing classical state governance. Ukraine (and possibly parts of adjacent or reunited regions) will not be able to function in its previous form. Under the «Trump Peace Council» or under the formal aegis of the UN, an inter-state Special Tax and Economic Zone (STEZ) will be established.
So, What Will the New World Look Like?
The turning point in the war has already occurred—not so much on the battle map, but in the minds of key players and in the economy of the rear.
The new special tax and economic zone formed on the territory of Ukraine, operating under new technological principles of management, is intended to become an accelerated reconstruction project. If successful, this model will radically alter the entire architecture of the post-Soviet space and the balance of power between Russia and the West. In the event of failure, the world will face another cycle of «managed» chaos. However, neither Ukraine nor the system of international relations will ever be the same again.
