Crucial negotiations between the United States and Iran are about to begin in Pakistan. The information space is flooded with reports about the risks of a ceasefire, but analysts are missing the main point. Almost no one in Europe or Russia is talking about the role of China, which is not merely a mediator but the key architect of this process. Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing — that is the true center of gravity in global politics.
1. Regime Change: Iranian Reality vs. Propaganda
It is currently fashionable to say that Trump «lost» to Iran by failing to achieve a change of system. But let’s examine what «regime change» actually means. A regime is the group controlling a country.
Recall Russia in the 1990s (I described this in detail in my book *Entering the Kremlin*, available for download on my website ValeryMorozov.com or on Lulu). Until 1996, the security forces (Korzhakov, Barsukov) ruled de facto, blocking the work of Western transnational corporations and mired in corruption (remember the sale of the S‑300 missile system to the United States for $3 million in cash). When the TNCs realized it was impossible to work with these «thugs,» the regime was replaced by an oligarchic one (Berezovsky et al.). Then, when it became clear that the «oligarchs» were incapable of governing Russia and were quickly sliding into the abyss, the regime changed again, and Vladimir Putin and the «Petersburg faction» were brought to power in the Kremlin. There was no revolution, but the regime changed repeatedly.
The same thing happened in Iran. The former elite, which had made radical decisions, has been effectively eliminated. Other people have come to power. Yes, they are Islamists and Shiites, but it is a different regime, one with which a pragmatic dialogue is possible — and behind it stands China.
2. The Price Tag: One and a Half Trillion Dollars in Damage
Talk that Iran «held out without losses» is a dangerous delusion. The damage to Iran’s economy is enormous, estimated at $1.5–2 trillion. Its fleet has been destroyed, key bridges and logistics hubs have been ruined.
Trump miscalculated the consequences of striking the Strait of Hormuz, trusting Netanyahu’s promises of an instant «pro-Western uprising.» The uprising never happened, and the blow to the global economy was painful. But today Iran faces a choice: remain in ruins or become a great oil power (alongside the US and Russia) by allowing transnational corporations in, operating through their European or Chinese subsidiaries.
3. The Chinese «Castle» and the Pakistani Key
Why has a ceasefire become possible only now? Because China has begun receiving more oil than before the war, paying for it in yuan. But a limit was reached, beyond which the continuation of the conflict began to threaten Beijing itself. If the war continues, the flow of oil and LNG to China, India, and Pakistan will be halted for years. No one wants that.
It is the United States and China that have brought the situation to an agreement. Pakistan has acted as the mediator — a unique player:
— an ally of China since the time of Mao;
— a close partner of Saudi Arabia;
— a nuclear power and an important partner of the United States.
4. Trump as «Flesh and Blood» of America
Recalling my trip to the United States in 1990, I remember a conversation with my driver Gena (an emigrant from the USSR, a Jew from Odessa, and one of the leading mafiosi in Soviet Odessa). He took me to Atlantic City to show me the «Trump Taj Mahal,» Trump’s casino. Even then he said: «If Trump goes into politics, he will become president. He is every American’s dream and the flesh and blood of America. Americans may laugh at Trump, criticize him, but they all want to be like him: daring, rich, successful, handsome, and desirable.»
Trump is a living hero from a Jack London novel. Daring, tough, eager to «screw everyone» and win. His current negotiation tactic of «throwing punches» — threats, inflated demands, psychological pressure — is not chaos but a method for extracting the most favorable deal. He is playing not only against Iran; he is playing for the minds of Americans, projecting the image of a «strong leader.»
5. The New Architecture of the Middle East
We are moving toward a system where the Gulf monarchies will become mere «pretty boxes,» while real resource management will shift to TNCs. A private military structure (a kind of international «Wagner») may be created, which would also find a place for experienced fighters from Ukraine after active hostilities there end. Zelensky needs to find a way — and a source of funding — to sustain them in peacetime. But a Ukraine mired in debt, with a destroyed industrial base and economy, cannot provide such a source.
Conclusion: Behind the curtain of missile strikes and loud statements lies a «Grand Game.» It is the deal of the century between the United States and China. No one needs a war pushed to the extreme. The world is returning to pragmatism, even if through the ashes.
