In the global media space—be it Western think tanks, Ukrainian telethons, or Russian state propaganda and independent bloggers—what is happening on the front lines and in the rear is described in an extremely primitive, two-dimensional plane.

We are presented with convenient, easy-to-understand pictures: here is a map, here are arrows, here are state borders, here are cities, enterprises, and logistics hubs. Within the framework of this flat perception, the war is presented as an ordinary exchange of strikes. Analysts eagerly argue over whose drone is more effective, claim that “the war of cities and strikes on infrastructure will not decide the outcome of the war,” and assert that “everything will be decided directly on the line of contact.”

Behind this superficial noise lies a catastrophic lack of understanding of how historical processes, global systems, and social structures function. Things are not merely “not good”—everything is fundamentally wrong.

1. The Illusion of the “Flat Map” and the Forgotten History of Systems

Modern analytics makes the same mistake as Soviet historiography did starting from 1930-s. Key mechanisms behind creation of the state and social systems are removed from real history.

In its time, the USSR effectively erased from official memory the names of people like Alexander Bogdanov or Leonid Krasin. Generations of people grew up on textbooks without having any idea who actually created the Bolshevik Party, who translated Marx’s Capital into Russian, wrote key works, and laid the philosophical foundations (such as Bogdanov with his concept of “tectology,” an organizational science that served as a precursor to general systems theory, informatics and cybernetics).

Today, the exact same thing is happening in the media. Experts discuss the war using categories of the early 20th century, completely overlooking that it is not merely targeting technologies or drones that have changed, but the entire system of human and economic relations.

They talk about monetary or military capital while absolutely ignoring social capital. Take, for example, Russian commodity corporations: they possess vast resources, operate tens of billions of dollars and directly influence decisions in the Kremlin, yet their market capitalization and stock prices remain extremely low. Why? Because the system of social capital and trust—upon which the real value of modernity is built—has been destroyed.

2. The “Mangal” Trap: What Is Actually Being Destroyed in the Fire?

The media force the viewer to look at the “mangal” (barbecue grill)—at the roaring fire of war, at destroyed warehouses, oil refineries, or infrastructure. But the mangal is merely the place where the fire burns. What is happening must be evaluated by the “kitchen”—by what exactly is being cooked and which ingredients are burning away irretrievably.

The damage inflicted on the systems is distributed extremely asymmetrically:

• The Ukrainian System: Operates in a war environment where official reports are reduced to formal numbers of downed targets, concealing the real picture. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s daily infrastructural and social damage objectively exceeds its capacity for restoration by tenfold. The interaction of a small system with a huge one, according to the laws of systems theory, leads to systemic absorption.
• The European System: Absorbs Ukraine’s resources and people. A colossal outflow of intellect, finances, skilled personnel, and social capital is taking place from Ukraine to Europe. Ukraine is surrendering its resources, sacrificing its social, human, and intellectual potential—its very future. However, Europe is paying a price for this through the loss of cheap resources and energy sources, as well as the loss of its position as a leader in industrial production, which is relocating to the US, China, and other regions of the world.
• The Russian System: Although Russia’s military-industrial complex is undergoing rapid development—and its Armed Forces, including air and missile defence systems, have achieved a new level of capability through constant adaptation during the war—a process of insidious systemic wear and tear, degradation, and an institutional crisis is accumulating within the economic and state systems.

3. The Shift in the Moral and Ethical Code: The Main Fork in the Road for the Future

The biggest blind spot for the media and analysts is the moral, ethical, and national transformation.

During the collapse, crisis, or absorption of any state system, its moral and ethical code is the first thing to shatter and be reassembled.

• Malorossia (Little Russia) as part of the Russian Empire had its own one ethical code.

• Parts of Ukraine within Poland or Austria-Hungary had another.
• Within the USSR, Ukraine developed a fundamentally different ethical code.
• Post-Soviet Ukraine formed a new code—one with which, as practice has shown, the system proved incapable of enduring the buildup of internal and external problems and contradictions. This ultimately led to a total war with Russia.

Right now, we are witnessing the demise of the old form and the painful birth of a new moral and ethical code. The future depends not on the names of the leaders of the new Ukraine (whether Zaluzhny, Zelensky, Budanov, or anyone else), but on which specific forces, bearing what new moral code, come to power.

Key Factor: In an environment shaped by the militarization of consciousness, unchecked official corruption, and severe exhaustion, society inevitably radicalizes. In Ukraine and Russia, this process is taking the form of a harsh national and social transformation. If the current elites fail to realize the necessity of a controlled shift in the national and ethical paradigm, radicalization will begin to drive these processes chaotically.

Conclusion

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian media continue to sell their audiences a “picture on a flat plane”—downed drones, kilometres of advance, and statements by politicians.

They fail to see that right now, on this “mangal,” the old social order is burning to ashes. In its place, entirely new, far more rigid and radical moral and ethical systems are being formed—systems that today’s superficial leadership simply does not know how to handle.